EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing moderate growth, correcting after a fairly active decline the day before, as a result of which local lows from August 2 were updated: the instrument is testing 1.0840 for a breakout, while traders are awaiting speeches by representatives of the US Federal Reserve, which will take place today, but are unlikely to have a significant impact on the market. Meanwhile, yesterday the European Central Bank (ECB) decided, as expected, to cut its interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.40%, and in the follow-up statement officials noted that inflation in the region remains under control, while the economy shows some worrying trends. Thus, the Core Consumer Price Index in September added another 2.7% year-on-year and 0.1% month-on-month, while the CPI slowed slightly from 1.8% to 1.7% year-on-year and settled at –0.1% month-on-month. At the same time, the regulator did not disclose plans for further monetary policy, repeating previous theses that at each meeting decisions will be made based on incoming data. American statistics on Thursday showed growth in Retail Sales in September by 0.4% after an increase of 0.1% in the previous month, while analysts expected 0.3%, and Industrial Production fell by 0.3% after an increase of 0.3% with a forecast of –0.2%.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading with an upward trend, developing the corrective impetus formed the day before, when the instrument managed to retreat from the local lows of August 19. Investors are focusing on the block of macroeconomic statistics from the UK on Retail Sales today: in September, the indicator accelerated from 2.3% to 3.9% year-on-year with a forecast of 3.2%, and in monthly terms, the dynamics slowed from 1.0% to 0.3%, while analysts expected –0.3%. Also, during the week, data on the labor market and inflation were published: the Core Consumer Price Index in September fell from 3.6% to 3.2% with expectations of 3.4%, and the broader indicator — from 2.2% to 1.7% year-on-year and from 0.3% to 0.0% — month-on-month, while experts expected 1.9% and 0.1%, respectively. In turn, the Claimant Count Change in September rose from 0.3 thousand to 27.9 thousand, exceeding preliminary estimates at 20.2 thousand, the Employment Change in August increased from 265.0 thousand to 373.0 thousand, and the Unemployment Rate adjusted from 4.1% to 4.0%. In addition, investors evaluate statistics on Retail Sales and jobless claims from the United States: Retail Sales volumes in September accelerated from 0.1% to 0.4% with expectations of 0.3%, and the indicator excluding cars — from 0.2% to 0.5%, while analysts expected 0.1%. In turn, the Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended October 11 fell sharply from 260.0 thousand to 241.0 thousand, and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ended October 4 increased from 1.858 million to 1.867 million, but it was lower than the expected 1.870 million.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair is showing mixed dynamics, trading near 0.6700: the instrument is trying to develop the “bullish” momentum formed the day before, when the Australian dollar managed to retreat from its local lows of September 12 against the backdrop of the publication of macroeconomic statistics. Thus, the Employment Change in Australia in September added 64.1 thousand after increasing by 42.6 thousand in the previous month, while analysts expected 25.0 thousand, Full-Time Employment increased by 51.6 thousand, and Part-Time Employment — by 12.5 thousand, the Unemployment Rate was fixed at 4.1% contrary to expectations of 4.2%, while the Participation Rate adjusted from 67.1% to 67.2%, ahead of neutral forecasts. Today, the instrument is receiving some support from data from China: Industrial Production volumes in September accelerated from 4.5% to 5.4%, with preliminary estimates at 4.6%, and Retail Sales — from 2.1% to 3.2%, compared to a forecast of 2.5%. In turn, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the third quarter grew by 0.9% after 0.7% quarterly and by 4.6% after 4.7% year-on-year, while experts expected 1.0% and 4.5%, respectively. Today, at 14:30 (GMT 2), the US will present September data on the housing market: among other things, analysts expect a slowdown in the dynamics of issued Building Permits from 1.47 million to 1.46 million, and the volume of Housing Starts may decrease from 1.356 million to 1.350 million.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing a moderate decline, consolidating near 149.90: the instrument is trying to retreat from its local highs of early August, while traders are analyzing statistics from Japan. Thus, the National Consumer Price Index in September slowed sharply from 3.0% to 2.5%, and the CPI excluding Food and Energy slightly accelerated from 2.0% to 2.1%, while the CPI excluding Fresh Food adjusted from 2.8% to 2.4% with a forecast of 2.3%. The unstable inflation dynamics are unlikely to contribute to the implementation of the Bank of Japan's plans to further tighten monetary policy. At the same time, the regulator has repeatedly noted that it will not change monetary parameters during a period of high volatility in the market. In turn, at the end of the week, American investors are evaluating the data published the day before: Retail Sales in September increased from 0.1% to 0.4% with expectations of 0.3%, and the indicator excluding cars — from 0.2% to 0.5%, while analysts expected 0.1%. Industrial Production in September lost 0.3% after growing by 0.3% in the previous month, while experts expected –0.2%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair has been quite active in the morning session on October 18, developing a confident upward trend in the ultra-short term and preparing to end the week at new record highs, above 2710.00. Gold is receiving significant support from expectations of further easing of monetary policy by the world's leading financial regulators. The US Federal Reserve will meet in November, following which the interest rate may be reduced by 25 basis points, and analysts do not rule out the possibility of another revision of monetary parameters in December. The day before, the European Central Bank (ECB) reduced the interest rate by 25 basis points, which completely coincided with analysts' forecasts. At the same time, officials refused to give precise forecasts regarding further possible adjustment of the indicator, noting only that the decision will be made based on the economic situation in the region. Yesterday, the US market received data on Retail Sales: in September, the indicator increased by 0.4% after increasing by 0.1% in the previous month, while analysts expected 0.3%. Meanwhile, Industrial Production lost 0.3% after growing by 0.3% in the previous month, while analysts expected –0.2%. Meanwhile, the precious metal is supported by geopolitical uncertainty, which is associated with both conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, and the upcoming US presidential elections in November.