EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing slight growth, trying to retreat from the local lows of August 2 and again testing 1.0800 for a breakout. Pressure on the single currency remains amid expectations of further monetary easing by the European Central Bank (ECB). In particular, the day before, the President of the regulator, Christine Lagarde, speaking at meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, noted that at the moment the ECB has decided on the vector of the interest rate movement, but the pace of its reduction is still in question, and the decision at each meeting will be made based on past macroeconomic data. In October, the ECB decided to reduce borrowing costs by 25 basis points, and in the follow-up statement, officials expressed confidence that inflation in the region would be consolidated at the target level of 2.0% already in 2025 (previously, analysts assumed that this would happen no earlier than the end of 2025). In turn, the US Federal Reserve is likely to adjust the indicator by –25 basis points in November, and possibly also in December: there is practically no doubt about the November meeting (according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the probability of this scenario being realized is 85.0%), but the December decision will be made based on the results of the presidential elections, which will take place on November 5. Today, the US will release September statistics on Existing Home Sales, with absolute sales volumes forecast to rise slightly from 3.86 million to 3.90 million. Also, during the day, a monthly economic review from the US Federal Reserve, the so-called Beige Book is expected to be published. In the eurozone, in addition to speeches by ECB representatives, October data on Consumer Confidence will be presented: experts suggest a slight improvement in the negative dynamics from –12.9 points to –12.5 points.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is trading and testing 1.2990 for a breakout. The instrument is trying to regain its position after the predominantly "bearish" dynamics at the beginning of the week, which led to a short-term renewal of the local lows of August 19. Pressure on the pound's position is being exerted by expectations of further easing of monetary parameters by the Bank of England, although the regulator's position currently remains the most cautious among all the world's leading financial institutions. Last week, the UK's September inflation data was released, showing a sharp slowdown in the annual rate from 2.2% to 1.7%, against expectations of 1.9%, while the Core CPI fell from 3.6% to 3.2%, against expectations of 3.4%. At the same time, the growth of the British economy is currently outpacing the dynamics in the eurozone. S&P Global's October business activity data is due out on Thursday, with analysts expecting the Manufacturing PMI to fall to 51.4 points from 51.5 points and the Services PMI to fall to 52.2 points from 52.4 points. Meanwhile, the US currency remains under pressure amid expectations of another cut in the US Federal Reserve interest rate in November, as well as the results of the presidential elections, which will take place on November 5. It is expected that if Donald Trump wins, the regulator's policy may change, and the cost of borrowing will remain at slightly higher levels.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining close to 0.6678. Market participants are waiting for speeches by official representatives of global regulators at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. Meanwhile, the US macroeconomic statistics published yesterday turned out to be mixed and did not cause a noticeable reaction on the market: the Redbook Retail Sales Index for the week ended October 18 slowed from 5.6% to 4.6%, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index rose from –21.0 points to –14.0 points in October, while analysts had expected –18.0 points. Australia releases October business activity data tomorrow. The indicators are expected to remain unchanged: let us recall that the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.7 points to 46.7 points in the previous month, and the Commonwealth Bank Services PMI fell from 52.2 points to 50.5 points. In turn, in the US, statistics on jobless claims, as well as on New Home Sales will enter the market: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended October 18 will probably increase from 241.0 thousand to 242.0 thousand, and the dynamics of New Home Sales in September, according to forecasts, will accelerate in absolute terms from 0.716 million to 0.720 million.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing noticeable growth, testing 152.20 for a breakout and updating local highs from July 31. The upward trend is taking place against the backdrop of dominant technical factors, while little macroeconomic statistics from the US and Japan have been published at the beginning of the current week. The day before, investors paid attention only to the Redbook Retail Sales Index for the week ending October 18, which slowed from 5.6% to 4.6%. In turn, the American currency received some support from a slight increase in business activity in the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index in October from –21.0 points to –14.0 points, with a forecast of –18.0 points. At the same time, markets are trying to predict the possible results of the US presidential elections, which will take place on November 5. If Donald Trump wins, analysts expect a slowdown in the pace of monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve, which will be associated with a change in tariff policy and an escalation of the so-called "tariff wars" with China and the EU. Tomorrow, Japan will release its October business activity statistics from S&P Global, which is expected to show the Manufacturing PMI increase from 49.7 points to 49.8 points. Tokyo CPI data is due on Friday, with the Core Consumer Price Index excluding Fresh Food expected to adjust to 1.7% in October from 2.0%.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair shows further growth in the short term and updates record highs in the area of 2753.00. As before, support for quotes is provided by the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, as well as the systematic easing of monetary parameters by leading global regulators. Thus, last week the European Central Bank (ECB) announced a 25-basis-point interest rate cut, and at the beginning of this week the People's Bank of China, which has recently been trying to actively stimulate economic growth in the country, did the same. Today, the results of the Bank of Canada meeting will be released, and it will probably decide to cut the indicator by 50 basis points to 3.75%. In turn, the US Federal Reserve is preparing for a rate adjustment in November: according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group) FedWatch Tool, the probability that the interest rate will be cut by 25 basis points in November is about 85.0%. Another 15.0% of analysts expect the current parameters to remain unchanged. In addition, the upcoming US presidential elections in November add to the uncertainty: it is expected that if Donald Trump wins, the country may return to the policy of "tariff wars", and the pace of reduction in borrowing costs may slow down.