EUR/USD

The EUR/USD pair is showing mixed dynamics, consolidating near 1.0820 after quite active growth the day before. Technical factors support the single currency. Traders remain expecting a more rapid decline in borrowing costs from the European Central Bank (ECB), while expectations for more aggressive monetary easing from the US Federal Reserve are changing as hopes for Donald Trump's victory in the upcoming presidential election on November 5 grow. At the same time, this week, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that decisions on the interest rate have not yet been made, and the regulator needs to exercise caution in any adjustments to monetary policy. Some representatives of the European regulator are speaking out more harshly: for example, the Governor of Banco de Portugal, Mário Centeno, spoke in favor of reducing the rate by 50 basis points at once at the ECB meeting on December 12. Macroeconomic statistics from the eurozone published yesterday were mixed: the S&P Global Services PMI in October fell from 51.4 points to 51.2 points, while analysts expected 51.6 points, the Manufacturing PMI increased from 45.0 points to 45.9 points with a forecast of 45.1 points, and the Composite Manufacturing PMI adjusted from 49.6 points to 49.7 points, which coincided with market estimates. Meanwhile, data from the US showed an increase in the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI from 47.3 points to 47.8 points, while the Services PMI strengthened from 55.2 points to 55.3 points, while experts expected 55.0 points.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD pair is slightly declining, correcting after a noticeable growth the day before, which allowed the instrument to retreat from the local lows of August 16. Quotes are testing 1.2960 for a breakdown, while market participants are preparing for the publication of statistics in the US. Today at 14:30 (GMT 2), the market will receive September data on Durable Goods Orders: according to preliminary estimates, the indicator will fall from 0.0% to –1.1%, and excluding transport — from 0.5% to –0.1%. The University of Michigan's five-year consumer inflation expectations are likely to remain at 3.0% in October, while the Consumer Confidence index is expected to rise to 69.0 points from 68.9 points. Meanwhile, moderate pressure on the position of the British currency today is being exerted by data on the dynamics of Consumer Confidence: the index from the analytical portal Gfk Group in October was adjusted from –20.0 points to –21.0 points. In addition, the British business activity statistics turned out to be much weaker: the Manufacturing PMI fell from 51.5 points to 50.3 points, while experts expected 51.4 points, the Services PMI slowed from 52.4 points to 51.8 points with expectations of 52.2 points, and the Composite PMI from S&P Global/CIPS fell from 52.6 points to 51.7 points. Similar data from the US turned out to be more optimistic: the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI strengthened from 47.3 points to 47.8 points, above the forecast of 47.5 points, and the Services PMI adjusted from 55.2 points to 55.3 points, contrary to calculations of a slowdown to 55.0 points.

NZD/USD

The NZD/USD pair is showing a moderate decline, testing 0.5990 and updating local lows from August 16. The instrument is under pressure from macroeconomic statistics from New Zealand. The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) Consumer Confidence Index fell to 91.2 points in October from 95.1 points. The situation in the Chinese economy, which is showing signs of slowing down, also remains a negative factor for the New Zealand dollar: at the beginning of the week, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points at once to 3.10%, while analysts expected an adjustment of only –20 basis points. Meanwhile, the US currency is strengthening as expectations of Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election, which will take place on November 5, increase. Among other things, a slower reduction in borrowing costs is predicted due to the tightening of tariff policies on foreign trade with China and the EU. At the same time, the markets are still counting on a 25-basis-point reduction at the US Federal Reserve meeting in November, and also consider a similar adjustment likely in December.  US data released the day before reflected an increase in business activity in October: the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI strengthened from 47.3 points to 47.8 points, with a forecast of 47.5 points, and the Services PMI — from 55.2 points to 55.3 points, while experts expected 55.0 points. Investors also noted a significant slowdown in Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 18 from 242.0 thousand to 227.0 thousand, compared to neutral analyst expectations.

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair is showing a moderate decline, developing the "bearish" impetus formed the day before. The instrument is testing 151.50 for a breakdown, and technical overbought factors are putting pressure on the positions of the American currency. Meanwhile, the yen received some support from inflation data today, with the Tokyo area CPI slowing to 1.8% in October from 2.1% and the Core CPI excluding Food and Energy adjusting to 1.8% from 1.6%, slightly raising the prospects of continued monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan. However, the October business activity statistics released yesterday showed a decline in the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI from 49.7 points to 49.0 points, while analysts had expected 49.8 points. In turn, the US Manufacturing PMI accelerated from 47.3 points to 47.8 points with a forecast of 47.5 points, and the Services PMI — from 55.2 points to 55.3 points [Insert a tag with expectations of 55.0 points. The yen also received additional support from a speech by Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, who stressed that the regulator is concerned about sharp changes in the national currency exchange rate and does not rule out the possibility of new currency interventions if necessary.

XAU/USD

The XAU/USD pair is showing a weak downward trend, consolidating near 2727.00. The instrument showed moderate growth the day before, which allowed quotes to recover after a more confident decline on Wednesday, when gold retreated from record highs near 2760.00. Technical factors are putting pressure on the price, while the fundamental picture on the market changes little. The positions of the American currency are also receiving some support from the growing expectations of Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election on November 5, in which case a tightening of tariff policy is predicted, as well as a slowdown in the pace of easing monetary conditions to strengthen the national currency. In addition, the day before, statistics on business activity in the US were published: the Manufacturing PMI in October rose from 47.3 points to 47.8 points, ahead of forecasts of 47.5 points, and the Services PMI — from 55.2 points to 55.3 points, contrary to expectations at 55.0 points. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending October 18 decreased from 242.0 thousand to 227.0 thousand, and Continuing Jobless Claims for the week ending October 11 decreased from 1.869 million to 1.867 million, with preliminary estimates of 1.88 million. New Home Sales in September increased by 4.1% after falling by 2.3% the previous month, and in absolute terms the dynamics accelerated from 0.709 million to 0.738 million, exceeding the expected 0.72 million.