Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar depreciates as US Dollar gains ground
- According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 95.8% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed in November, with no expectation of a more substantial 50-basis-point cut.
- ANZ-Roy Morgan Australia Consumer Confidence dropped to 86.4 this week, down from 87.5 the previous week.
- Australia's 10-year government bond yield hovers near 4.5%, mirroring a rise in US bond yields. This increase is driven by market sentiment increasingly favoring Former President Donald Trump in the upcoming US presidential election and expectations that the Fed may adopt a more cautious stance on future rate cuts.
- According to polling site FiveThirtyEight, Trump's possibility of winning the US election has increased to 52% compared to 48% for Vice President Kamala Harris.
- Over the past three weeks, allies of former President Donald Trump have faced at least 10 court defeats in key battleground states that could impact the outcome of the November 5 election between Republican candidate Trump and his Democratic opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris.
- Recent comments from Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Esmaeil Baghaei, about potentially using "all available tools" to respond to Israel’s recent attacks on military targets in Iran, signal a risk of further escalation. Such statements increase global uncertainty, fueling investor demand for safe-haven assets like the USD as they brace for potential conflict
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