United States of America

USD is strengthening against EUR and JPY but weakening against GBP.

Investors are preparing for the US Fed’s monetary policy meeting next week and are assessing macroeconomic statistics that could influence the officials’ actions. Today at 16:00 (GMT 2), the September data on the number of open vacancies in the labor market JOLTS is due. The figure may decrease from 8.040M to 7.980M, confirming the cooling of the sector, which is necessary for maintaining the “dovish” rate. Most experts expect that the interest rate will be cut twice more by the end of the year, in November and December, by 25 basis points. However, some experts say that a more moderate change is possible. So today, Larry Fink, the head of the investment company BlackRock Inc., which manages assets worth more than 10.0T dollars, suggested that global inflation is still too high and the regulator may limit itself to one borrowing cost adjustment this year.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening against JPY but weakening against USD and GBP.

The November German GfK Group consumer climate index rose from –21.0 points to –18.3 points compared to forecasts of –20.4 points, the indicator of readiness for new purchases – from –6.9 points to –4.7 points, and expected income – from 10.1 points to 13.7 points. Experts note the recovery of consumer sentiment, which is still under pressure from high prices and a poor labor market. Meanwhile, according to forecasts published today by the German Chamber of Industry and Commerce (DIHK), the gross domestic product (GDP) could amount to 0.2% this year and 0.0% in 2025. According to analysts, the country faces a systemic rather than a cyclical economic crisis.

United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against USD, JPY, and EUR.

The October retail price index from the British Retail Consortium (BRC) corrected from –0.6% to –0.8%, falling at the most significant rate in the last three years, with food prices increasing by 1.9% and non-food prices falling by 2.1%. In addition, according to the Bank of England, the number of consumer loans issued in September amounted to 65.65K, above both the forecast of 65.00K and 64.96K in August. However, consumer lending slowed to 1.231B pounds, while net lending to individuals fell to 3.800B pounds. On Wednesday, the government will present a new budget that could see significant tax increases for businesses and individuals, putting pressure on the currency.

Japan

JPY is weakening against USD, GBP, and EUR.

The September unemployment rate fell to 2.4% from 2.5%, while the job vacancy rate rose to 1.24 from 1.23, indicating that the national labor market remains stable even during the global economic crisis. Investors are weighing recent comments from leading Japanese politicians, with Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato saying the government will monitor currency movements, hinting at the possibility of more interventions, and Economy Minister Ryosei Akazawa noting that a poor yen could put pressure on the economy by reducing real household incomes and private consumption.

Australia

AUD is weakening against GBP, JPY, and EUR but has ambiguous dynamics against USD.

Tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT 2), the Q3 consumer price index is due. The indicator may decrease from 1.0% to 0.3% QoQ and 3.8% to 2.3% YoY. The weighted average indicator may fall from 0.8% to 0.7% QoQ and from 4.1% to 3.6% YoY, confirming the slowdown in inflation, because of which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) officials will move to discuss monetary easing, and the national currency will weaken. On the other hand, experts do not expect active actions from the regulator until early next year since the overall rate of consumer price growth remains above the target range of 2.0–3.0% and is unlikely to fall below 3.7% even in 2025.

Oil

The morning decline in oil prices gave way to growth under the influence of several opposite factors.

The asset is negatively affected by the stabilization of the situation in the Middle East after Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iran, which did not affect the oil production infrastructure, reducing the risks of oil supply interruptions. On the other hand, the positive dynamics are facilitated by the statement of the US government about its intention to purchase 3.0M barrels of oil for the strategic reserve with delivery before next May. At 22:30 (GMT 2), investors are expecting the publication of weekly data on reserves from the American Petroleum Institute (API). According to preliminary estimates, the indicator will increase by 2.300M barrels, putting pressure on the oil price.