Current trend

Yesterday, the USD/CHF pair lost 0.29%, falling to 0.8656, and is now consolidating in anticipation of the new macroeconomic statistics.

Tomorrow at 10:00 (GMT 2), investors focus on the October Swiss Economic Institute (KOF) leading economic indicators index, which may be 105.1 points, supporting the franc and causing a deeper correction of the trading instrument to 0.8610. After reaching 90.7 points in June 2023, the index has been steadily rising, reaching 105.5 points and reflecting economic recovery, also confirmed by the Q2 gross domestic product (GDP) increase of 1.8%.

The September US durable goods orders did not noticeably affect the dollar, remaining at –0.8%, although analysts expected –1.1%. The value, excluding defense and aviation orders, accelerated from 0.3% to 0.5%, contrary to forecasts of a slowdown to 0.1%. This week, traders will pay attention to the October labor market statistics. According to preliminary estimates, nonfarm payrolls will decrease from 254.0K to 123.0K, and average hourly earnings – from 0.4% to 0.3%.

The long-term trend remains upward. In mid-October, the price broke through the resistance level of 0.8625 and headed towards 0.8745. After a breakout, ​​ it may reach 0.8870 and 0.9020. If the quotes reach the support level of 0.8610 within the correction, long positions with the target at 0.8745 are relevant. After a consolidation below 0.8610, short positions with the target at 0.8510 are relevant. The RSI indicator (14) is growing, approaching the overbought zone. However, it has not entered yet, allowing buy positions along the trend.

The medium-term trend reversed upwards on October 18, when the asset broke the target zone of 0.8634–0.8611 and headed towards zone 2 (0.8921–0.8892). The key support area is shifting to 0.8430–0.8404, and the additional one to 0.8562–0.8549. After reaching, long positions with the target at 0.8670 are relevant. A breakdown of 0.8404 is necessary for the negative dynamics to develop, which is unlikely.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.8745, 0.8870, 0.9020.

Support levels: 0.8610, 0.8510, 0.8405.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from 0.8610, with the target at 0.8745 and stop loss 0.8570. Implementation period: 9–12 days.

Short positions may be opened below 0.8510, with the target at 0.8405 and stop loss 0.8540.