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USD/CAD holds below 1.3900 despite lower Oil prices

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  • USD/CAD trades with mild negative bias near 1.3885 in Monday’s early European session. 
  • Lower crude oil prices might weigh on the Loonie. 
  • The BoC Governor Macklem's speech will take center stage on Monday. 

The USD/CAD pair trades with mild losses around 1.3885 on Monday during the early European trading hours. Nonetheless, the downside seems limited as the fall in crude oil prices could weigh on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) and create a tailwind for the pair. Traders will focus on Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Macklem's speech on Monday for fresh impetus. 

The US Dollar (USD) gains ground near a three-month top amid signs of strength in the US economy and bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will proceed with modest rate cuts over the year. Financial markets have priced in a 97.7% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points (bps) in November, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Additionally, bets on Donald Trump winning the US presidential election lift US bond yields and support the Greenback. 

Crude oil prices fall on Monday amid easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which undermines the CAD as Canada is the major crude oil exporter to the United States. Furthermore, the downbeat Canadian Retail Sales for August exert some selling pressure on the Loonie. Data released by Statistics Canada on Friday showed that Retail Sales increased by 0.4% MoM in August from a rise of 0.9% in July, below the market consensus of 0.5%. 

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