Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar receives support from improved PMI data
- The opinion polls show that Trump and Harris are virtually even. The final winner may not be known for days after Tuesday’s vote. Trump has already indicated he may challenge any unfavorable result, as he did in 2020.
- The US dollar (USD) struggled amid the election-related uncertainty, with strategists linking the currency’s weakness to a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showing Democratic nominee Kamala Harris leading Republican candidate Donald Trump 47% to 44% in Iowa.
- The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision on Thursday will also be closely watched. Markets expect a modest 25 basis point rate cut this week. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 99.5% probability of a quarter-point rate cut by the Fed in November.
- The TD-MI Inflation Gauge rose by 0.3% month-over-month in October, up from a 0.1% increase in the prior month, marking the highest reading since July and preceding the RBA's November policy meeting. Annually, the gauge climbed by 3.0%, compared to the previous 2.6% reading.
- ANZ Australia Job Advertisements increased by 0.3% month-over-month in October, a notable slowdown from the upwardly revised 2.3% gain in September. Despite the weaker growth, this marks the second consecutive month of increases.
- China’s Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with Australia’s Trade Minister Don Farrell on Sunday. China expressed hopes that Australia will continue enhancing its business environment and ensure fair and equitable treatment for Chinese companies.
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicated that October’s Nonfarm Payrolls increased by only 12,000, following a revised September gain of 223,000 (down from 254,000), which fell well short of market expectations of 113,000. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.1% in October, matching the consensus forecast.
- Australia's Producer Price Index rose by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, following a 1.0% increase in the prior period and surpassing market forecasts of a 0.7% rise. This marks the 17th consecutive period of producer inflation. On an annual basis, the PPI growth slowed to 3.9% in Q3, down from the previous quarter’s 4.8% increase.
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