Current trend

Last week, the BTC/USD pair had ambiguous dynamics: it rose to 73660.00 and came close to historical maximums but was unable to update them and went into correction. Currently, quotes have reached 68750.00 (Murrey level [6/8]), supported by the central line of Bollinger Bands, starting consolidation.

The market is awaiting two key events that could significantly affect price movements in the medium term: the US presidential election on Tuesday and the US Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday. At the same time, the finish of the presidential race is of the utmost importance for traders: it is believed that the return of Republican candidate Donald Trump to the White House will have a more positive impact on the development of the digital industry, since he previously promised to replace the head of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Gary Gensler and transfer BTC to the category of state reserves. The attitude of the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris to crypto assets is less certain, so significant changes are not expected under her rule. It is worth noting that over the past few days, the forecasts of the candidates' victory on online platforms have levelled off: if in the middle of last week, Polymarket estimated the probability of Donald Trump coming to power at 66.9%, now it is 56.1%. This situation is causing anxiety among investors, which is reflected in Bitcoin ETFs investments, which fell by 54.9 million dollars on Friday, which could be the beginning of a new negative trend.

In turn, the US Federal Reserve is expected to continue easing monetary policy at a moderate pace. Most likely, officials will not consider the October employment data, since the slowdown in its growth was caused by temporary factors, while the unemployment rate in the country remained the same, and the rate of increase in wages accelerated. Under these circumstances, the interest rate will probably be cut by 25 basis points, and the prospects for a reduction in the cost of borrowing in December remain uncertain.

Overall, the situation on the cryptocurrency market is uncertain: traders do not rule out significant price volatility in the near future. According to analysts, the BTC/USD pair may adjust by 10.0% in either direction depending on the outcome of the US presidential election.

Support and resistance

The price is correcting downwards against the short-term uptrend. Price consolidation below 68750.00 may cause further decline to 62500.00 (Murrey level [4/8]) and 59375.00 (Murrey level [3/8]). If the price consolidates again above 71875.00 (Murrey level [7/8]), growth will resume to the targets of 75000.00 (Murrey level [8/8]), 78125.00 (Murrey level [ 1/8]) and 81250.00 (Murrey level [ 2/8]).

Technical indicators generally allow for a resumption of growth in the BTC/USD pair: Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, MACD is decreasing but remains in the negative zone, and Stochastic is approaching the oversold zone and may reverse up.

Resistance levels: 71875.00, 75000.00, 78125.00, 81250.00.

Support levels: 62500.00, 59375.00.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above 71875.00 with targets at 75000.00, 78125.00, 81250.00 and a stop-loss at 69700.00. Implementation period: 5–7 days.

Short positions can be opened from 67200.00 with targets at 62500.00, 59375.00 and a stop-loss at 70400.00.