Current dynamics

USD/JPY is higher at 153.35 after the release of the minutes of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting.

According to the document, committee members discussed the potential impact of U.S. policy changes on the domestic economy amid hawkish rhetoric, with split views on the timing of interest rate hikes. Overall, officials are opting to remain cautious, with reduced uncertainty in the U.S. giving them time to assess the situation. The borrowing cost is expected to reach 1.0% in the second half of 2025, but the yen is losing ground amid the lack of a clear signal on the timing of the change in monetary policy.

In addition, investors are concerned that US President-elect Donald Trump may raise import tariffs, which could lead to higher inflation and limit the US Federal Reserve’s ability to ease monetary policy, supporting the dollar. Thus, last week, its quotes added 0.99% in USDX, and this trend may continue in the medium and long term. Meanwhile, the preliminary volume of gross domestic product (GDP) from the Atlanta Fed for the fourth quarter increased from 2.4% to 2.5% compared to the forecast of 2.4%, and the November consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan increased from 70.5 points to a May maximum of 73.0 points compared to 71.0 points, which may help keep borrowing costs high longer than expected.

Support and resistance levels

Despite the active growth in October, the long-term trend in the USD/JPY pair remains downward: last week the price rose to the resistance level of 154.80, after a reversal of which a decline to the support level of 151.40 and 149.25 is expected, otherwise growth to the 157.57 mark is likely.

The medium-term trend is upward: quotes have overcome zone 2 (151.68–151.04) and are heading towards zone 3 (158.61–157.91). At the moment, a correction is observed, within which in the medium term a decline to the area of key trend support 148.11–147.50 is likely, where long positions with a target at the maximum of last week 154.70 will become relevant.

Resistance levels: 154.80, 157.57, 161.70.

Support levels: 151.40, 149.25, 146.47.

Trading scenarios

Short positions can be opened from the level of 151.80 with a target of 151.40 and a stop-loss of 156.00. Implementation period: 9-12 days.

Long positions can be opened above the level of 156.00 with a target of 158.90 and a stop loss of 155.00.