United States of America

USD continues to strengthen against its main competitors – EUR, GBP, and JPY.

Investors are preparing for the publication of inflation data for October on Wednesday, which may influence the decisions of US Federal Reserve officials: it is predicted that the consumer price index (CPI) will grow from 2.4% to 2.6% YoY and the base indicator will remain at 3.3%, increasing the likelihood of the regulator refusing to reduce the cost of borrowing again this year. Experts also continue to analyze the economic program of President-elect Donald Trump: representatives of the investment bank Goldman Sachs Group Inc. concluded that the highest trade duties are expected not only for China, but also for countries such as South Korea, Taiwan, and Vietnam, since they have recently achieved a significant increase in the surplus in trade with the United States. Thus, in 2023 for South Korea it amounted to 44.4 billion dollars due to car sales, in 2024 for Taiwan – 24.6 billion dollars amid increased semiconductor supplies, and for Vietnam – 90.0 billion dollars. Nevertheless, the possible effectiveness of additional fees does not seem high yet: experts believe that such measures of the new administration will only lead to the fact that supply chains will be extended, as a result of which Asian products will begin to arrive to the United States through intermediary countries, which will certainly affect pricing policy and contribute to the acceleration of inflation.

Eurozone

EUR is weakening against USD and JPY but has ambiguous dynamics in pair with GBP.

Today, October data on the consumer price index (CPI) in Germany was published: MoM, the indicator rose from 0.0% to 0.4%, and YoY – from 1.6% to 2.0%, while the harmonized indicator increased from ˗0.1% to 0.4% MoM and from 1.8% to 2.4% YoY, confirming the likelihood of a pause in the “dovish” cycle of the European Central Bank (ECB). Also published today were the economic sentiment statistics from the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) for November: the index for the Eurozone fell from 20.1 points to 12.5 points against a preliminary estimate of 20.5 points, and the indicator for Germany declined from 13.1 points to 7.4 points against a forecast of 13.2 points, while the index of current economic conditions in Germany adjusted from ˗86.9 points to ˗91.4 points. ZEW president Achim Wambach said that economic sentiment had worsened following Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election and the collapse of the German ruling coalition.

United Kingdom

GBP is weakening in pairs with USD and JPY but has ambiguous dynamics against EUR.

Investors are focused on the publication of September data on the labor market: the unemployment rate in the country increased from 4.0% to 4.3%, significantly exceeding the forecasts of 4.1%, and the employment indicator slowed from 373.0 thousand to 219.0 thousand, while the average wage growth excluding bonuses amounted to 4.8% instead of 4.7% and with them – 4.3% with preliminary estimates of 3.9%. Commenting on these statistics, the Bank of England's chief economist Huw Pill said that they indicate the continuation of high inflationary pressure. The official was especially concerned about the consistently high growth of wages, contributing to the acceleration of the pace of consumer prices. Let us recall that most experts expect that the regulator will keep interest rates the same in December and will move to easing monetary policy no earlier than February.

Japan

JPY is weakening against USD but strengthening in pairs with EUR and GBP.

Investors are preparing for the publication of data on the corporate goods price index on Wednesday: the indicator may remain at 0.0% MoM and rise from 2.8% to 2.9% YoY. Thus, inflationary pressure will remain stable, which will be the basis for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials to refuse an early transition to a “hawkish” monetary policy course. The fact is that the regulator fears a new economic slowdown against the backdrop of worsening international trade conditions after the inauguration of Donald Trump. Most experts believe that the BoJ will not raise borrowing costs before the beginning of next year.

Australia

AUD is weakening against USD but is showing ambiguous dynamics in pairs with EUR, JPY, and GBP.

Today, data from the National Australia Bank (NAB) was published: the business confidence index rose from ˗2.0 points to 5.0 points, the trading conditions indicator rose from 12.0 points to 13.0 points, and the current business conditions indicator remained at 7.0 points. Only the employment conditions indicator fell from 5.0 points to 3.0 points. NAB experts characterize these statistics as positive, indicating an improvement in the state of business, since the cost of production continues to decrease along with the cost of labor and raw materials.

Oil

Oil prices are attempting to grow today, probably under the influence of technical factors, since the fundamental background remains negative for the market.

Today, the OPEC cartel for the fourth time in a row reduced its forecast for growth in global oil demand this year and next, emphasizing the weakness of the economies of China, India, and other importers. Now OPEC experts believe that global demand for “black gold” will grow by 1.82 million barrels per day this year instead of 1.93 million barrels per day, as previously assumed. In 2025, the increase may amount to 1.54 million barrels instead of 1.64 million barrels per day, while demand in the PRC economy will increase by only 450.0 thousand barrels per day instead of 580.0 thousand barrels per day.