Current trends

The AUD/USD pair corrected to 0.6461 amid a stronger US dollar and stable Australian macroeconomic statistics.

Thus, in October, unemployment was recorded at 4.1%, which was facilitated by an increase in employment by 36.8K to 14.541M, and the number of unemployed citizens was corrected by 0.800K to 623.5K, so that the employment-to-population ratio remained at 64.4%, and the share of the economically active population decreased from 67.2% to 67.1%. In turn, according to the results of the third quarter, the dynamics of wages did not change and amounted to 0.8% relative to the initial estimate of 0.9% quarter-on-quarter and was adjusted from 4.1% to 3.5% against 3.6% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting a slowdown in inflation according to the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) calculations – to 3.4% this year and 3.2% next year.

The US dollar reached 106.60 on the USDX. Investors are positive about the changes in the country's political system, where almost all Democrats are preparing to leave their posts, as supporters of the new head of the White House, a Republican, will control both houses of Congress. The administration announced the end of military aid to Ukraine and the direction of funds disbursed to support lagging sectors of the economy. In addition, traders are positive about a possible pause in monetary policy easing in December as inflation rose from 2.4% to 2.6% for the first time since March. However, US Fed officials have included these statistics in their calculations because they expect the new administration's plans to be implemented and the economy to react to them: the regulator may refuse to adjust interest rates by -25 basis points in December and slow down the decline in borrowing costs next year, bringing them to 4.00–3.75% instead of 3.00% as previously expected.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the trading instrument completed its movement in the range between the levels of the first order (I): the most likely scenario is a decline to the intersection of the right support of the first order (I) and the left support of the second order (II) 0.6406, and in the long term – to the intersection of the left support of the third order (III) and the right support of the third order (III) 0.6311.

In case of an upward reversal, a rise may occur at the intersection of the third order left resistance (III) and the third order right resistance (III) 0.6510 and at the intersection of the second order left resistance (II) and the first order right resistance (I) 0.6604.

Resistance levels: 0.6510, 0.6604.

Support levels: 0.6406, 0.6311.

Trading tips

Sell positions can be opened after consolidation below 0.6406, with the target at 0.6311. Stop loss at 0.6460. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Buy positions can be opened after consolidation above 0.6510, with a target of 0.6604. Stop loss at 0.6470.