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Mexican Peso holds firm as US CPI shows disinflation stalling

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  • Mexican Peso finds its foot after US inflation data announced ahead of Banxico decision.
  • US inflation report meets forecasts, raising chances of a Fed rate cut in December to 82%.
  • Banxico expected to reduce rates to 10.25%, potentially narrowing the interest rate differential with the US.

The Mexican Peso stayed firm against the US Dollar during the North American session on Wednesday as investors digested the latest US inflation report. Alongside that, traders braced for the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) monetary policy decision on Thursday, expecting the central bank will slash rates. At the time of writing, the USD/MXN trades at 20.57, virtually unchanged.

US inflation data in October was in line with analysts’ expectations. Therefore, investors became optimistic that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could lower interest rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting. According to CME FedWatch Tool data, odds for a rate cut increased from 58% a day ago to 82% at the time of writing.

On Thursday, Banxico is expected to cut rates from 10.50% to 10.25%, according to 19 of 20 analysts polled by Reuters. This would reduce the interest rate differential between Mexico and the US, implying that USD/MXN could rise and challenge the year-to-date (YTD) peak at 20.80.



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