AUD/USD: Analysts believe RBA will not switch to dovish rhetoric until May
| Scenario | |
|---|---|
| Timeframe | Weekly |
| Recommendations | SELL STOP |
| Entry point | 0.6500 |
| Take Profit | 0.6410 |
| Stop Loss | 0.6550 |
| Key levels | 0.6410, 0.6500, 0.6560, 0.6670 |
| Alternative scenario | |
|---|---|
| Recommendations | BUY STOP |
| Entry point | 0.6560 |
| Take Profit | 0.6670 |
| Stop Loss | 0.6520 |
| Key levels | 0.6410, 0.6500, 0.6560, 0.6670 |
Current dynamics
The AUD/USD pair is correcting in a sideways trend at 0.6523 amid a correction in the US dollar.
Experts do not expect significant movements in the Australian currency in the near future: according to a research note from Westpac Banking Corp., the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may keep the interest rate at 4.35% for a long time, and forecasts for a decrease in the indicator in February or March have been postponed to May. Experts believe that stable inflation and a stable situation in the labor market support this decision of the regulator, and one should not count on easing monetary policy until the consumer price index switches to positive dynamics and exceeds 2.0-3.0%, which is expected no earlier than May. This is confirmed by November statistics on business activity, where all values are in the stagnation zone: the indicator in the industrial sector increased from 47.3 points to 49.4 points, in the services sector it fell from 51.0 points to 49.6 points, and the composite - from 50.2 points to 49.4 points.
The US dollar is correcting at 106.80 in the USDX, retreating from Friday's high of 108.10. Investors are reacting to a decline in yields on leading bonds following the appointment of conservative Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. In a recent interview with Bloomberg, the official advocated for a rapid reduction in the national debt and gradual tax reform, while trade tariffs, which have caused particular concern in the markets, should be introduced gradually.
Support and resistance levels
On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting above the support line of the “expanding formation” pattern with dynamic boundaries of 0.7000–0.6400.
Technical indicators are slowing down the sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are directed downwards, keeping a stable distance from the signal line, and the AO histogram is in the negative zone.
Resistance levels: 0.6560, 0.6670.
Support levels: 0.6500, 0.6410.
Trading scenarios
Short positions can be opened after the price declines and consolidates below 0.6500 with a target of 0.6410. Stop loss is 0.6550. Implementation period: 7 days or more.
Long positions can be opened after the price rises and consolidates above the level of 0.6560 with the target of 0.6670. Stop loss is 0.6520.
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