Current dynamics

During the morning session, the price of WTI crude oil retreated from the highs of November 8, testing the 70.50 mark in a downside breakout due to technical factors and increasing corrective sentiment on the US currency, but persistent geopolitical risks continue to support the quotes, which may lead to a decrease in aggregate supply in the market.

Investors' attention was therefore focused on the worsening situation in Eastern Europe, where Russia used a non-nuclear medium-range ballistic missile called Oreshnik, and earlier it became known about the permission of the British and American authorities to attack the territory of the Russian Federation with Western-made weapons aimed at Ukraine. Many analysts continue to count on the de-escalation of the conflict after the inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump on January 20, who has repeatedly stated the need to end active hostilities as soon as possible.

Last week, data on the reduction in US oil production for the week of November 15 by 199.0 thousand barrels per day to 13.201 million barrels per day provided some support to the asset. Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy raised its forecast for this indicator to the end of 2024 by 10,000 barrels per day to 13.23 million barrels per day and lowered expectations for 2025 by the same 10,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. Commercial hydrocarbon inventories increased by 0.5 million barrels, or 0.1%, to reach 430.3 million barrels.

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are moving flat: the price range is practically unchanged, remaining spacious enough, and the MACD indicator is growing, maintaining a strong buy signal (the histogram is located above the signal line), and is trying to consolidate above the zero mark. Stochastic, approaching the maximum values, turned into a horizontal flat, responding to the emergence of bearish dynamics.

Resistance levels: 71.00, 71.60, 72.17, 73.00.

Support levels: 70.00, 69.06, 68.15, 67.00.

Business scenarios

Short positions can be opened after the level 70.00 is broken down with the target at 68.15. Stop loss is 71.00. The implementation period is 2–3 days.

Long positions can be opened after a rebound from the level of 70.00 and a breakout of the level of 71.00 upwards with the target of 73.00. Stop-loss — 70.00.