Current trends

The NZD/USD pair corrected to 0.5840 despite strong macroeconomic statistics.

According to data from the New Zealand Office for National Statistics (Stats.nz), total retail sales in the third quarter changed from –1.2% to –0.1%, with ten of the fifteen industries declining. As before, the largest growth was seen in sales of motor vehicles and parts (145.440M) and electrical goods (91.552M), while the slowest sectors were supermarkets and convenience stores (–62.582M), food and beverages (–53.451M) and department stores (–47.168M). In October, exports reached NZ$5.77B, and imports reached NZ$7.31B, leading to a significant reduction in the trade deficit from NZ$2.154B to NZ$1.544B.

The US dollar is trading at 107.00 on the USDX, boosted by the rhetoric of US President-elect Donald Trump, who said that on his first day in office, he will impose a 25.0% tariff on all goods coming from Mexico and Canada. He also said that until China takes strong steps to prevent illegal trade of goods across the border, the US will maintain an additional 10.0% tariff on all Chinese products. On Friday, investors turned their attention to November business activity data. The manufacturing PMI rose from 48.5 points to 48.8 points, the services PMI from 55.0 points to 57.0 points, and the composite PMI from 54.1 points to 55.3 points, reducing the possibility of a December interest rate cut by the US Fed.

Support and resistance

The trading instrument is undergoing correction, holding near the support line of the Expanding formation pattern with dynamic boundaries of 0.6460–0.5800.

Technical indicators are in a sell condition: the fast EMA on the Alligator indicator is moving away from the signal line, and the AO histogram forms correction bars below the transition level.

Resistance levels: 0.5870, 0.6020.

Support levels: 0.5800, 0.5670.

Trading tips

Sell positions can be opened after the price falls and consolidates below 0.5800, with a target of 0.5670. Stop loss at 0.5860. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Buy positions can be opened after the price rises and consolidates above 0.5870, with a target of 0.6020. Stop loss at 0.6100.