United States of America

USD is weakening against its main competitors – EUR, GBP, and JPY.

Investors are focused on the comments by US President-elect Donald Trump, who announced yesterday that on the first day of his tenure he would impose a 25.0% duty on all goods coming from Mexico and Canada, as well as an additional 10.0% on products manufactured in China. These promises provoked a mixed reaction from the market: some experts noted that tariffs against China turned out to be significantly lower than previously estimated 60.0%, increasing the likelihood that a serious trade conflict could be avoided. Nevertheless, some investors fear that the announced plans will be adjusted over time. In addition, the current strengthening of the dollar is limited, since today at 21:00 (GMT 2) the market is waiting for the publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which may shed light on the uncertainty of further actions by the monetary authorities. Judging by the latest comments, there is no consensus among officials on the expediency of lowering interest rates in December: some of them, led by the chairman of the regulator Jerome Powell, question this step, while the president of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank (FRB), Neel Kashkari, considers a reduction in the cost of borrowing by 25 basis points at the next meeting quite reasonable.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening against GBP and USD but has ambiguous dynamics in pair with JPY.

Investors are focused on the comments of leading politicians from the European Central Bank (ECB). Yesterday, the head of the Bundesbank Joachim Nagel said that in order to completely defeat the acceleration of consumer prices, it is necessary to reduce the cost of borrowing gradually, without taking drastic steps. He warned that wage growth remains too fast, core inflation is significant, and the trade policy of the new US administration could cause additional instability. The official also noted that the German economy has not been able to recover for more than two years, and stagnation is likely in the last quarter of this year. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos agreed with Nagel's position, saying today that the regulator should reduce interest rates as inflationary pressures decrease, and warned that the introduction of US trade tariffs could cause retaliatory measures from the EU authorities. Finally, Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau noted that the policies of the Donald Trump administration increase the risks of holding back global economic growth: raising trade tariffs could have a limited impact on consumer price dynamics in the Eurozone but would lead to borrowing costs remaining higher in the long term.

United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against USD but weakening against EUR and JPY.

Today, data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) was published: sales volume fell from ˗6.0 points to ˗18.0 points with preliminary estimates of ˗14.0 points, and the current situation assessment index fell from ˗13.0 points to ˗21.0 points, in response to the indexation of taxes in the government budget, recently presented by the Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves. Also, a survey of CBI members showed that 61.0% of companies note a decrease in the attractiveness of investments in the UK, and almost 50.0% intend to reduce staff or slow down wage growth due to a significant growth in social security costs. Trying to calm investors, Rachel Reeves said that further increases in taxes are not planned, since officials have managed to create a stable base for future economic growth.

Japan

JPY is strengthening against USD and GBP but has ambiguous dynamics in pair with EUR.

Today, the data on the corporate services price index for October was published: instead of the expected decline to 2.5%, the indicator strengthened from 2.8% to 2.9% due to the growth in the cost of equipment repair and construction. Acceleration of the rate of inflation in the corporate sector increases the likelihood of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising interest rates by 25 basis points at the December meeting. It is also worth noting today's publication of the government's assessment of the national economy: according to the document, it is recovering at a moderate pace, but at the same time, officials warned of the potential negative impact of the policies of the elected US President Donald Trump in the near future.

Australia

AUD is weakening against GBP, EUR, and JPY but has ambiguous dynamics in pair with USD.

On Wednesday at 02:30 (GMT 2), October data on the average annualized consumer price index (CPI) will be published: the indicator is expected to rise from 2.1% to 2.5% but will remain within the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range of 2.0–3.0%, within which it has been since August. Although the data may confirm the stabilization of inflation pressures, according to experts, the Australian regulator is unlikely to begin adjusting monetary policy before the spring of next year.

Oil

Oil prices are trying to recover today after a sharp decline on Monday following reports of a possible ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese militant organization Hezbollah.

It is also worth noting that the market reaction to the 25.0% tariff on goods from Canada announced by US President-elect Donald Trump was restrained: experts believe that the new tariffs will not affect oil, since it will be difficult to replace it with supplies from other countries. During the day, investors are expecting the publication of weekly data on reserves from the American Petroleum Institute (API): they may grow by 0.250 million barrels, putting pressure on energy quotes.