United States of America

USD weakens against EUR, GBP, and JPY.

A large block of macroeconomic data was published today, including statistics on the labor market and gross domestic product. According to preliminary data, The Q3 US economy adjusted from 3.0% to 2.8% QoQ. Initial jobless claims decreased from 215.0K to 213.0K last week compared to forecasts of 215.0K, and the total claims increased from 1.898M to 1.907M, although experts expected 1.910M. Investors focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes. According to it, the officials expressed confidence in the reduction of inflation and stabilization of the employment sector, against which they will be able to continue easing monetary policy. However, the pace of interest rate adjustments should be gradual, as future economic developments remain uncertain amid potential tariff and tax changes from the new Trump administration.

Eurozone

EUR is strengthening against USD, weakening against JPY, and ambiguous against GBP.

In December, the GfK Group consumer climate index for Germany fell from –18.4 to –23.3, exceeding expectations for –18.8 and reaching its lowest since May, amid job losses in industry and the relocation of production offshore, as well as an increase in bankruptcies and a deterioration in the financial outlook for households. European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Board Member Isabel Schnabel said that due to positive inflation data, the ECB should not adjust interest rates too quickly to support the economy, as a recession in the Eurozone is already unlikely.

United Kingdom

GBP is strengthening against USD, weakening against JPY, and ambiguous against EUR.

In an interview with The Financial Times yesterday, Bank of England Deputy Governor Claire Lombardelli said that the import tariffs proposed by US President-elect Donald Trump would pose a risk to economic growth in developed countries, including the UK. The official noted that it was too early to assess the impact of the new duties but the Bank of England members, who set interest rates, would discuss trade developments at upcoming meetings.

Japan

JPY is strengthening against USD, GBP, and EUR.

On Friday, investors will pay attention to November inflation data for the Tokyo metropolitan area, which is considered ahead of the national statistics and could have a significant impact on the Bank of Japan’s further actions. The CPI may rise to 1.9% from 1.8% YoY, while the core rate may rise to 2.0% from 1.8%, raising the prospects for a 25 basis point rate hike by the central bank in December. However, most analysts still believe that policymakers will not begin adjusting monetary policy until next year.

Australia

AUD is weakening against GBP, EUR, and JPY but is strengthening against USD.

The weighted average CPI was released in October and was flat at 2.1% YoY rather than rising to 2.5%, as expected, due to the introduction of government subsidies for electricity and rent. However, the core rate rose to 3.50% from 3.25%, remaining above the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) target range of 2.00% to 3.00%. Thus, the probability of further high interest rates is high. Experts are confident that officials will not begin to ease monetary policy before May.

Oil

Oil prices are trying to grow against general uncertainty. On Monday, US President-elect Donald Trump announced his intention to introduce a 10.0% duty on products manufactured in China, significantly lower than the politician’s election promises. However, investors fear a further adjustment of the indicator to 60.0% for some categories of products, which could cause a slowdown in the Chinese economy, reducing oil consumption.

On the other hand, the ceasefire that began today between Israel and the Lebanese paramilitary organization Hezbollah reduces geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, reducing the risks of disruptions in oil supply from the region. Investors are pinning their hopes for new growth in the asset on the actions of the OPEC deal participants. At the next meeting on December 1, producers may postpone the increase in oil production to February. In addition, yesterday’s report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) reflected a decrease in American commercial oil reserves by 5.935M barrels instead of the expected growth of 0.250M barrels.