Current dynamics

During the Asian session, the XAU/USD pair is consolidating around the 2641.41 level, extending the weak bullish impulse formed a day earlier and trying to correct after the sharp decline earlier in the week.

The US dollar has recently been putting pressure on gold prices, which has received additional support after newly elected President Donald Trump announced his readiness to impose increased import tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada and China. At the same time, the politician preferred not to mention the EU in his speech, which caused a short-term increase in bullish sentiment towards the euro. Moreover, the introduction of tariffs is likely to be more precise than declared in pre-election statements, which should generally reduce the overall negative impact of such measures. An additional factor weakening gold remains the possibility of an end to the acute phase of the conflict in the Middle East: media reported that Israel was ready to support a ceasefire plan in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, which could soon lead to easing tensions in the region.

Today at 15:30 (GMT 2), investors will focus on US statistics on the dynamics of orders for durable goods, as well as data on the price index of personal consumption expenditures, which is actively used by the US Federal Reserve to calculate the average dynamics of inflation in the country. The price index in October is expected to add another 0.2% on a monthly basis and accelerate on an annual basis from 2.1% to 2.3%, while the core indicator may increase by 0.3% and 2.8% at 0.3% and 2.7%, respectively. Also during the day, the final data on gross domestic product (GDP) for the third quarter will be released, with analysts expecting no changes from the previous estimate at 2.8%.

A period of local correction has begun on the market: according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report, last week the number of net speculative positions in gold fell to 234.4 thousand from 236.5 thousand earlier. Investors continue to smoothly close purchase transactions, expecting consolidation of quotations: the balance of bulls in positions secured by real money amounted to 210.131 thousand against 19.807 thousand bears. Last week, buyers liquidated 8.608 thousand contracts, and sellers 1.570 thousand, which indicates a continuation of the asset's correction.

Support and resistance levels

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a moderate decline: the price range is narrowing, reflecting the mixed nature of trading in the ultra-short term. MACD is falling, maintaining a weak sell signal (histogram below the signal line). At the same time, the indicator has already reacted to the instrument's corrective growth attempt on Tuesday and Wednesday, which could lead to a quick trend change. Stochastic maintains a confident downward direction and is quickly approaching the lows, which indicates the risk of oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 2640.00, 2655.00, 2670.00, 2685.56.

Support levels: 2623.84, 2613.83, 2600.00, 2589.61.

Trading scenarios

Long positions can be opened after a confident breakout of the 2640.00 level upwards with a target of 2685.56. Stop-loss — 2613.83. Execution time: 2-3 days.

A rebound from the 2640.00 level as a resistance with a downward break of the 2613.83 level may be a signal to open new short positions with a target of 2580.00. Stop-loss — 2640.00.