Current dynamics

The US stock index Dow Jones shows a slight increase in the area of 44791.5, consolidating at the historical highs updated the day before: the markets closed today on the occasion of the Thanksgiving holiday, so the statistics published the day before are in the focus of attention of investors.

Among other things, the benchmark price index for personal spending rose in October from 2.7% to 2.8%, and personal income of American households in October from 0.3% to 0.6%, which, however, may indirectly indicate the increase in inflationary risks. Personal spending, in turn, slowed from 0.6% to 0.4%. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week of November 22 decreased from 215,000 to 213,000 against a forecast of 217,000, and repeated claims (for the week of November 15) — increased from 1.898 million to 1.907 million, while analysts expected 1.910 million. In addition, the US Department of Commerce confirmed the previous estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the third quarter at 2.8%, and the final data was fully in line with analysts' forecasts.

The focus of investors' attention remains on the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve (FOMC) on 6 and 7 November, according to the results of which the interest rate was adjusted by -25 basis points. In the document, officials expressed confidence in the reduction of inflation and the stabilization of the labor sector, factors that allow for further easing of monetary policy if inflation continues with a sharp deceleration towards the 2.0% target. However, the pace of adjustment should be gradual, as economic development remains uncertain amid possible tariff and tax changes by the new White House administration, which will begin after the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump.

Thus, the politician has already announced his intention to introduce new import tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China. The US auto manufacturing sector, for example, has responded to similar reports with a decline, as investors fear that similar moves will reduce sales in the country by about $1.1 billion. In particular, shares of GM Holding lost 9.0%, and those of the automaker Ford Motor Co. — 2.6%. The high-tech sector, in turn, responded with growth: Internet service Amazon.com Inc. gained 3.2%, retail corporation Walmart Inc. — 2.0%, and GPU manufacturer Nvidia Corp. — 0.7%.

Support and resistance levels

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart show a reversal in the horizontal plane: the price range is expanding from above, freeing the "bulls" to reach new local highs. The MACD is growing, maintaining a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic, moving away from the highs, is unfolding in a downward plane, signaling in favor of the development of a corrective decline in the nearest time intervals.

Resistance Levels: 45008.6, 45300.0, 45600.0, 45900.0.

Support levels: 44678.3, 44427.1, 44145.0, 43867.8.

Business scenarios

Short positions can be opened after a confident breakout of the level 44678.3 downwards with the target 43867.8. Stop-loss — 45008.6. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

A bounce off the 44678.3 level as support followed by a breakout of the 45008.6 mark upwards can be a signal to open long positions with the target at 45600.0. Stop-loss — 44678.3.