Daily digest market movers Mexican Peso ignores Trump’s tariffs rhetoric to appreciate

Mexico’s Chamber of Deputies, after approving the dissolution of autonomous bodies, proposed adjustments to the details of a contentious reform that abolished several regulatory bodies to ensure compliance with the USMCA trade agreement.

“The fact that MORENA is taking a more cautious approach with two of the most important regulators, antitrust and telecoms, is a positive sign,” said Rodolfo Ramos of the Brazilian bank Bradesco BBI.

Last week, Banxico Governor Victoria Rodriguez was dovish and hinted that the central bank might look to decrease rates by more than 25 bps due to disinflation progress. Headline inflation during the first two weeks of November dipped from 4.68% to 4.56% YoY.

US Durable Goods Orders in October came in at 0.2% MoM, below estimates of 0.5%, but higher than September’s -0.4% contraction.

US GDP for Q3 in its second estimate was 2.8% QoQ, as expected, below Q2 2024’s 3%.

Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending November 23 reached 213K, below estimates of 217K and unchanged compared to the previous figure.

US core PCE expanded by 2.8% YoY as expected, up from 2.7%.

The CME FedWatch Tool suggests that investors see a 66% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the US central bank’s December meeting, up from 59% a day ago.

Data from the Chicago Board of Trade, via the December fed funds rate futures contract, shows investors estimate 24 bps of Fed easing by the end of 2024.