Current dynamics

The USD/CHF pair is trading in a corrective trend at 0.8888: despite the new growth of the US dollar, the asset maintains stable positions.

The franc is supported by macroeconomic statistics: in November, the consumer price index remained at -0.1% and increased from 0.6% to 0.7%, remaining within the target range of 0.0-1.0% outlined by the Swiss National Bank. The regulator has already cut the interest rate to 1.0% and is likely to continue easing monetary policy in December, moving at 25 basis points per quarter, in contrast to the sharper declines observed in other countries. In October, retail sales fell from 1.8% to 1.4%, below the 2.8% forecast by analysts. Earlier, the head of the department, Martin Schlegel, noted that a strong national currency and, as a result, lower prices for imported goods are leading inflation to the lower limit of the target range of 0.0–2.0%, but the strengthening of the US dollar and growing exports to the US of some categories of goods, in particular pharmaceuticals that are less price-sensitive, mean that concerns about the impact of the franc on export sectors may be less pronounced than before.

The US currency is trading at 106.50 in USDX, which could push USD/CHF to a new high of 0.8950 as the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7 from 48.5 in November, while the ISM PMI fell to 48.4 from 46.5. Today at 17:00 (GMT 2), JOLTS will publish the October job openings report, which could rise to 7.490 million from 7.443 million, supporting the dollar.

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart, the trading instrument is correcting, retreating from the support line of the ascending channel with boundaries of 0.9050–0.8800.

Technical indicators strengthen the buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator move away from the signal line, and the AO histogram forms downward bars in the positive zone.

Resistance levels: 0.8920, 0.9080.

Support levels: 0.8820, 0.8680.

Trading scenarios

Long positions can be opened after the price grows and consolidates above 0.8920 with a target of 0.9080. Stop loss is around 0.8850. Implementation period: 7 days or more.

Short positions can be opened after the price declines and consolidates below the level of 0.8820 with the target of 0.8680. Stop loss is 0.8880.