Current trends

The XAU/USD pair is consolidating near 2640.00, waiting for new triggers for movement: yesterday, the instrument recorded a slight decline, while touching local lows since November 28, reflecting expectations that the Fed will slow down the pace of monetary policy easing. In addition, investors expect a tightening of tax policy after the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, which may increase domestic inflationary pressures and prompt the regulator to take more cautious actions.

Macroeconomic statistics released yesterday showed a significant increase in manufacturing PMI: the index from S&P Global in November rose from 48.8 points to 49.7 points, while the index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) — from 46.5 points to 48.4 points, exceeding the forecast of 47.5 points. The ISM manufacturing employment index rose from 44.4 points to 48.1 points, and the new orders index — from 47.1 points to 50.4 points.

Tomorrow, at 15:15 (GMT 2), the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report on the US private sector employment rate will be released: analysts expect the index to decrease from 233.0 thousand to 150.0 thousand in November. In addition, at 17:00 (GMT 2), the market will receive services PMI data from S&P Global and ISM, and at 21:00 (GMT 2) — the FED's monthly economic report "Beige Book" will be released. At 20:45 (GMT 2), FED Chairman Jerome Powell will give a speech, and analysts expect him to comment on the possibility of a rate cut at the December meeting.

Meanwhile, the precious metals market is undergoing a local correction: according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of net speculative positions in gold increased slightly from 234.4 thousand to 250.3 thousand last week. Investors began to gradually increase their purchases, expecting the price to continue to rise. In particular, the balance of "bulls" in positions secured with real money reached 217.568 thousand, compared to 19.377 thousand for "bears". During the past week, buyers opened 7.436 thousand new transactions, while sellers — decreased by 0.430 thousand contracts.

Support and resistance levels

On the daily chart, Bollinger Bands are growing moderately: the price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of a mixed trading trend in the ultra-short-term outlook. The MACD indicator is falling, trying to form a new signal for selling (the histogram is trying to stay below the signal line). Conversely, the Stochastic indicator maintains a fairly stable growth, giving a signal in favor of the development of the "bullish" trend in the near future.

Resistance levels: 2655.00, 2670.00, 2685.56, 2700.00.

Support levels: 2630.00, 2613.83, 2600.00, 2589.61.

Trading scenarios

It is possible to consider opening a sell order, after the price breaks below 2630.00 with a profit target at 2589.61. Stop loss — 2650.00. Execution time: 2-3 days.

The recovery of the "bullish" trend in the market, accompanied by a breakout above the level of 2655.00, may be a signal to open a buy position, with a take profit target of 2700.00. Stop loss — 2630.00.