USD/JPY: Seesaws near 103.00 even as risks recover after Capitol Hill drama

• USD/JPY struggles to keep Wednesday’s bounce off March 2020 levels.
• US officials declared Capitol building as secured, policymakers are determined over Electoral College vote.
• Virus woes, updates on national emergency awaited but US politics remain the key.

USD/JPY takes rounds to 103.00 as markets in Tokyo open for Thursday’s trading. The yen pair refreshed 10 month low on Wednesday before bouncing off 102.59. The recovery moves recently dwindled although risk catalysts recover on the safety of the US Capitol Hill building after a mob of President Donald Trump’s supporters attacked the premises before a few hours. Global traders currently await American policymakers’ move on the Electoral College vote as an immediate catalyst.

After a few hours of drama in Washington, coupled with one woman’s death, the protesters over President Trump’s defeat in the US 2020 elections seem to have been detained as officials convey safe passage in Capitol Hill. Even so, American Congress is angry with Mr. Trump and is ready to move forward in welcoming Democrats in the Senate after Jon Ossoff won in the Georgian Senate race.

It should be noted that a most likely tie will need Vice President-elect Kamala Harris’ vote to decide on the House power. As a result, it is almost clear that Democrats are to rule US politics in 2021.

While risks recently cheered Democratic favor for stimulus, backed by end of the geopolitical drama, the mood turned cautious ahead of likely official announcement from Japanese Prime Minister (PM) Yoshihide Suga, concerning emergency in Tokyo and three surrounding areas. Also challenging the risks could be the coronavirus (COVID-19) updates suggesting further pessimism for the UK.

Against this backdrop, S&P 500 Futures rise 0.18% whereas Japan’s Nikkei 225 is up 1.30% by press time. It should be noted that the US 10-year Treasury yields jumped to the highest since March 2020 top while Wall Street benchmarks also closed on the positive side the previous day.

Given the lack of major data/events on the calendar, USD/JPY traders will keep their eyes on the US politics with any clear sign of Democratic ruling will be welcomed by the bulls. Additionally, virus updates and global ire against China are extra catalysts to watch ahead of US ISM Services PMI for December, expected 54.5 versus 55.9.

Technical analysis

Unless successfully crossing a three-month-old resistance line, at 103.55, USD/JPY is vulnerable to visit a downward sloping trend line from July 31, currently around 102.50.