EMERGING MARKETS-Latam currencies weaken on spillover from tumbling Turkish lira
* Real snaps 3-day winning run * Peso headed for third day of falls * Brazil interest rate outlook shoots up (Adds comments, updates prices throughout) By Sruthi Shankar and Shreyashi Sanyal March 22 (Reuters) - Mexico's peso fell and Brazil's real broke a three-day winning run on Monday, showing the impact of a plunge in the Turkish lira after the country's central bank chief was ousted. Most emerging market currencies weakened on the news as investors sought the safety of the U.S. dollar, although losses outside of Turkish markets were contained. The Mexican peso fell 0.2% to head for its third day of declines, while the real weakened by 0.3% to trade near 5.50 per dollar. The Turkish lira briefly fell 15% to near record lows after the weekend firing of Naci Agbal, which prompted fears of a reversal of the tight monetary policy that has helped the Turkish currency to outperform its rivals this year. "The next lira crisis is upon us," said Tatha Ghose, FX and emerging markets analyst at Commerzbank. "The trigger... is the same as which started off the 2018 lira crisis: the president forcefully re-asserts his unconventional monetary policy philosophy, making it clear that an unknown policy experiment will now be conducted." The lira cut some losses to trade down 7.3%, while other emerging market peers such as the South African rand and eastern European currencies weakened slightly. "Even though EM is weaker this morning, we don't expect long lasting contagion into Latam," Citi analysts wrote in a note. Brazil and Russia last week joined Turkey in raising interest rates as they sought to tamp down inflation, with expectations of higher borrowing costs in the developed world also hurting EM currencies. A central bank survey of economists showed on Monday Brazil's interest rate outlook for this year and next shot up by half a percentage point after last week's historic rate hike. The real hit its strongest level against the dollar in three weeks on Friday after worries about the government's handling of the coronavirus pandemic and higher inflation made it among the worst-performing emerging market currencies this year. Most stock markets in Latin America were also hit, with Brazil's Bovespa falling 0.8%. Planemaker Embraer, down 7%, was the biggest decliner on the benchmark index, while airline stocks Azul and Gol fell 5.3% and 2.8% respectively, reflecting weakness in the travel sector globally on worries about rising COVID-19 cases. Mexican stocks rose half a percent, tracking a positive session on Wall Street. Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 1847 GMT: Stock indexes Latest Daily % change MSCI Emerging Markets 1338.36 0.11 MSCI LatAm 2326.69 -0.87 Brazil Bovespa 115223.28 -0.86 Mexico IPC 47148.45 0.26 Chile IPSA 4818.92 -0.74 Argentina MerVal 48955.36 -0.042 Colombia COLCAP 1324.54 -0.08 Currencies Latest Daily % change Brazil real 5.4970 -0.25 Mexico peso 20.5510 -0.28 Chile peso 717 -0.50 Colombia peso 3557.4 -0.01 Peru sol 3.712 0.10 Argentina peso (interbank) 91.5600 -0.22 Argentina peso (parallel) 140 2.86 (Reporting by Sruthi Shankar and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Jane Merriman and Jan Harvey)
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