USD/JPY outlook: Weaker than expected US data add to positive outlook

USD/JPY

The USDJPY is consolidating within a narrow range under new multi-week high on Thursday, as bulls pause after a strong rally in past three days, when the pair gained 2.2%.

The dollar keeps bullish near-term stance on expectations that the Fed would remain on policy tightening path after inflation in January rose above expectations.

The US data released today added to dollar’s bullish outlook as core producer prices (a leading indicator of consumer inflation) rose above expectations in January (0.5% vs 0.3% f/c / previous month), while

Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index collapsed to the lowest since May 2020 (-24.3 vs -7.4 f/c), partially offsetting optimism about skipping recession.

Bullish setup of daily indicators underpins the action, with bullish signal developing on weekly chart as the pair is on track for weekly close in green and formation of bullish engulfing pattern.

Bulls pressure immediate barrier at 134.77 (2023 high of Jan 6), but could extend towards strong resistances at 136.66/89 (Fibo 38.2% of 151.94/127.22 / 200DMA) on stronger bullish acceleration.

Meanwhile, bulls may take a breather for consolidation as daily studies are overbought, with dips to ideally find ground above broken Fibo 23.6% (133.05) and deeper downticks to be contained above 132.38/32 (converging 10/55DMA’s in attempt to form a bull-cross) to keep bulls intact.

Res: 134.77; 135.23; 136.66; 136.89.
Sup: 133.60; 133.05; 132.32; 131.06.

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