日元：日本选举情景
当前的众议院选举为日元带来了一些罕见的兴奋，因为它将成为新首相石破茂能否摆脱自民党派系对任何背离安倍经济学举措的阻力的晴雨表。
最有可能的结果（60% 的几率）是自民党将失去其一党多数席位，不得不依靠公明党组建联合政府，这将标志着其缓慢背离安倍经济学，对日元影响不大。这是市场预期的结果。下一个可能的结果（20%）是自民党保持其一党多数席位，从而加速背离安倍经济学，这对日元有利。
自民党选举结果不佳（15%），即自民党仅通过多党联盟掌权，可能导致其重新转向安倍经济学，从而导致日元走弱。对日元而言，最有利的结果将是日本立宪民主党获胜后引发的政治不确定性和安倍经济学的转变。我们认为这一结果的概率只有 5%。
Reprinted from Tickmill，the copyright all reserved by the original author.
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