Australian Dollar continues losing streak after weaker Q3 Wage Price Index data
- The Australian Dollar depreciates following the Wage Price Index data released on Wednesday.
- Australia's Wage Price Index increased by 3.5% YoY in Q3, down from a 4.1% rise in Q2.
- The US Consumer Price Index data release will be eyed in the North American session.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends its losses against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth successive day on Wednesday. The AUD/USD pair remains subdued after the release of the weaker-than-expected Australia’s Wage Price Index data. Additionally, the downward movement of the pair is bolstered by the optimism around the Trump trades.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock reaffirmed a hawkish stance after the interest rate hold last week, emphasizing the need for restrictive monetary policy amid ongoing inflation risks and a strong labor market. The hawkish sentiment surrounding the RBA might have restrained the downside of the Australian Dollar.
The US Dollar strengthened as analysts noted that if Trump’s fiscal policies are enacted, they could increase investment, spending, and labor demand, potentially heightening inflation risks. This scenario might lead the Federal Reserve (Fed) to consider a more restrictive monetary policy stance.
Traders are now focused on the upcoming US inflation data release on Wednesday for further guidance on future US policy. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a 2.6% year-over-year increase for October, with the core CPI anticipated to rise by 3.3%.
Australian Dollar extends losses following Wage Price Index
- Australia's Wage Price Index rose by 3.5% year-over-year in the third quarter, down from a 4.1% increase in the previous quarter and below expectations of a 3.6% gain. This marks the slowest wage growth since Q4 2022.
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated on Tuesday that the central bank remains confident in its prolonged fight against transitory inflation but noted that it’s too early to declare complete victory. Kashkari also mentioned that the Fed would hold off on modeling the economic impact of Trump’s policies until there is more clarity on their specifics.
- Australia's Westpac Consumer Confidence index rose by 5.3% to reach 94.6 points in November, marking its second consecutive month of improvement and the highest level in two and a half years. However, the index has remained below 100 for nearly three years, reflecting that pessimists still outnumber optimists.
- Matthew Hassan, Senior Economist at Westpac, noted "Consumers are feeling less pressure on their family finances, are no longer worried about further interest rate rises, and are increasingly confident in the economic outlook."
- Bloomberg News reported early Tuesday that Chinese regulators are planning to cut taxes on home purchases. According to the report, authorities are working on a proposal that would allow major cities to lower the deed tax for buyers to as low as 1%, down from the current maximum rate of 3%.
- China's latest stimulus measures fell short of investor expectations, further dampening demand prospects for Australia’s largest trading partner and weighing on the Australian Dollar. China announced a 10 trillion Yuan debt package on Friday designed to alleviate local government financing pressures and support struggling economic growth. However, the package stopped short of implementing direct economic stimulus measures.
- Morgan Stanley divides the Trump administration's macroeconomic policies into three key areas: tariffs, immigration, and fiscal measures. The report predicts that tariff policies will be prioritized, with an anticipated immediate imposition of 10% tariffs globally and 60% tariffs specifically on China.
- On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated he doesn’t anticipate Trump’s potential return to the White House impacting the Fed’s near-term policy decisions. “We don’t guess, speculate, and we don’t assume what future government policy choices will be,” Powell noted after the bank decided to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.50%-4.75%, as expected.
Australian Dollar falls toward three-month lows near 0.6500
AUD/USD trades near 0.6530 on Wednesday. The daily chart analysis indicates short-term downward pressure, as the pair stays below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains under the 50 level, further supporting a bearish outlook.
In terms of support, the AUD/USD pair is testing its three-month low of 0.6512, reached on November 6, with further psychological support at 0.6500.
On the upside, resistance appears at the nine-day EMA at 0.6576, followed by the 14-day EMA at 0.6593. A break above these EMAs could propel the AUD/USD pair toward its three-week high of 0.6687, with the next psychological target at 0.6700.
AUD/USD: Daily Chart
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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