The Australian dollar is showing little movement after Australia released the October inflation report. In the European session, AUD/USD is trading at 0.6478, up 0.06% on the day.
Australia’s inflation rate lower than expected at 2.1%
The Australian consumer price index rose 2.1% y/y in October, unchanged from September. This fell short of the market estimate of 2.3% as inflation hovered at its lowest level since July 2021. The deceleration was driven by a sharp decrease in electricity bills due to a government rebate and lower automotive gasoline prices.
The drop in CPI is positive news, but the trimmed mean rate, which measures underlying inflation and excludes energy costs, rose to 3.5% in October, up from 3.2% a month earlier. This is above the central bank’s target range of between 2-3 percent.
The Reserve Bank of Australia views underlying inflation as a better indication whether inflation is sustainable and the gain in the October data will be a cause for concern. The RBA has tried to dampen expectations of a rate cut, saying it is not in any rush to lower rates. The central bank has bucked the global trend and held rates since last November, at a time when other major central banks are lowering rates.
Inflation has been on the decline in recent months but the RBA has remained hawkish, stating at recent meetings that a rate hike is still on the table. The markets expect the RBA’s next rate move will be a cut, likely not before mid-2025.
The Federal Reserve is also focused on inflation and will keeping a close eye on the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index for October, which will be released later today. Core PCE is expected to remain unchanged at 0.3% m/m and tick up to 2.8% y/y, up from 2.7% in September. The headline PCE price index is also expected to rise, from 2.1% to 2.3% y/y. With the markets split on whether the Fed will lower rates or pause at the December meeting, the report could have a significant impact on rate expectations.
AUD/USD Technical
- AUD/USD is testing resistance at 0.6472. Above, there is resistance at 0.6511
- 0.6437 and 0.6398 are providing support
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