XAU/USD 02-06 December 2024 Weekly Analysis

#XAU/USD#

Weekly Analysis:

Swing Structure -> Bullish.
Internal Structure -> Bullish.

Price Action Analysis:
In my analysis dated 27 October 2024, it was noted that the first sign of a pullback would be a bearish Change of Character (CHoCH), indicated by a blue dotted line. Price's consistent upward momentum had positioned this CHoCH much closer to recent price levels as expected for weeks.

Now, for the first time since 23 November 2020, price has printed a bearish CHoCH. We are currently trading within a defined internal range.

Price is anticipated to trade down towards either the discount of the internal 50% Equilibrium (EQ), highlighted in blue, or the Weekly demand zone before targeting the weak internal high.

Note:
It is highly unlikely price will "crash" as many analysts are predicting. My view is this is merely a corrective wave of the primary trend.

Given the Federal Reserve's dovish policy stance alongside heightened geopolitical risks, market volatility is likely to remain elevated, influencing intraday price swings.

Weekly Chart:

Daily Analysis:

-> Swing -> Bullish.
-> Internal -> Bullish.

Price Action Analysis:
Price has shown a reaction from discount of internal 50% EQ. Currently price has been unable to target the weak internal high

Given the current internal range dynamics, price is expected to target weak internal high, priced at 2,790.170 However, considering the signs of a pullback phase on the Weekly timeframe, there remains a possibility of price printing a bearish Internal Break of Structure (iBOS). Price has yet to tap into Daily demand.

Note:
With the Fed maintaining a dovish policy stance and the continued rise in geopolitical tensions, we should anticipate elevated market volatility, which may impact both intraday and longer-term price action.

Daily Chart:
H4 Analysis:

-> Swing: Bearish.
-> Internal: Bullish.

Bias/analysis remains the same as analysis dated 25 November 2024.

Price Action Analysis:
As mentioned in yesterday's analysis dated 24 November 2024, whereby price was expected to print a bearish CHoCH. This is how price printed.

Currently, price is trading within an established internal range.

Intraday Expectation:
Price is anticipated to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, which is marked in blue, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 2,721.420.

Note:
With the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and persisting geopolitical uncertainties, heightened volatility in Gold is expected to continue. Traders should proceed with caution and adjust risk management strategies in this high-volatility environment.

H4 Chart: