EURJPY Dec24 Fund Analysis - First Half Bullish - 2nd Half Beari
EURJPY: LEI, ENDO and EXO SUMMARY
LEI DECREASING,
ENDO DECREASING,
EXOs INCREASING,
EXO+LEI INCREASING and
FINAL SCORE INCREASING.
1. EURJPY has weak ENDO but strong EXO, that is why Final Score is INCREASING.
2. EUR is stronger from perspective of EXO.
3. But JPY is stronger from ENDO perspective.
CONCLUSION: On Daily Timeframe, overall EURJPY might go BULLISH initially, but JPY ENDO might have a bearish impact to bring EURJPY SIDEWAYS or BEARISH. So the somewhat mix ENDO and EXO factors can keep the pair sideways for a week on Daily time frame.
NEWS EVENTS
Two major news events about INTEREST RATE for EUR and JPY on 12 Dec (EUR) and 19 Dec (JPY).
1. If the INTEREST DIFFERENCE between (EUINTR - JPINTR) would decrease (i.e. Either EUR rate decrease or JPY rate Increase) then EURJPY would become Bearish, matching the seasonal of second half.
2. Similarly if the difference between the Real Interest Rates would decrease, then EURJPY would become Bearish, matching the seasonal of second half.
EURJPY: SEASONAL ANALYSIS
a. BULLISH: From 02 - 13 DEC
b. BEARISH: From 19 - 27 DEC
COT REPORT
Latest COT data is not available for sure anlysis but the past data of 19 Nov signals a EURJPY Berish reveral, matching the seasonal and news event analysis.
QUATITATIVE ANALYSIS
2. On Monday, 2nd Dec, Bearish trend will follow. H1 and H4 trades my hit TP.
3. On Tuesday, 3rd Dec, we might see Bullish reversal. Daily Trade Plan need revisiting
4H ANALYSIS
TREND: Strong Bearish
DIVERGENCE: Bullish Div present but waiting to be played
HEIKIN-ASHI: Bearish moemntum confirmed.
FIB: Daily Level 78.6% is tested as resistance. But momentum is strong and it might break it.
S&R: Support at 157.2 and current price is 157.82. High probability that this resistance will be reached.
EMA: Price Below 200 EMA
ALLIGATOR: Mouth is open supporting strong bearish movement.
Scho-RSI: Again turning down
4H TRADE PLAY: STRONG BEARISH BIAS
Entry: 157.84, SL: 160.57,
TP1: 155.9, RR:1
1H ANALYSIS
TREND: Strong Bearish
DIVERGENCE: Bullish Div present but waiting to be played
HEIKIN-ASHI: Bearish moemntum confirmed.
FIB: Bullish retracement happened till 38.2% and then bearish movement happened
S&R: Resistance at 158.9 is respected
EMA: Price Below 200 EMA
ALLIGATOR: Mouth is open supporting strong bearish movement.
Scho-RSI: Again turning down
1H TRADE PLAY: STRONG BEARISH BIAS
Entry: 157.8, SL: 159.2,
TP1: 156.2, RR:1.14
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