BOJ’s Ueda hints at rate hike, yen dips

The Japanese yen is lower on Monday. In the European session, USD/JPY is trading at 150.03, up 0.26% on the day.

Ueda says rate hike is “nearing”

Bank of Japan Governor Ueda has been hinting about a rate hike and gave what was perhaps his strongest hint on Friday. In a newspaper interview, Ueda said that interest rate hikes are “nearing in the sense that economic data are on track”. Ueda also added that the BoJ has a “big question mark” over the outlook for US economic policy, with Donald Trump taking office next month. Ueda reiterated that the central bank wants to see a sustainable rise by inflation to the 2% target and expressed concern about the weak yen, warning the BoJ could respond with “countermeasures”.

The BoJ makes its next rate announcement on Dec.19. Will it raise rates at that meeting or wait until January? The BoJ has done a poor job of communicating its intentions and after the surprise BoJ rate hike in August triggered turmoil in the financial markets. Ueda’s comments may have been an attempt to show greater transparency, although he failed to mention a timeline for the next rate hike. The markets have fully priced in a rate hike by January, with the probability of a December hike at around 60%.

In the US, it’s a busy data calendar, highlighted by nonfarm payrolls on Friday. The ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released later today, with a market estimate of 47.5 for November, compared to 46.5 in October. Manufacturing has been in a prolonged recession, with only one month of growth over the past two years.

USD/JPY Technical

• USD/JPY tested resistance at 150.30 earlier. Above, there is resistance at 151.13
• There is support at 148.89 and 148.06

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