Australian Dollar weakens to below 0.6500 amid escalating US-China trade war tensions and USD strength
- AUD/USD declined by 0.93% to 0.6453 on Monday.
- The Aussie remains pressured by US-China trade war concerns and USD strength.
- Strong US data has also helped the USD over the session.
The AUD/USD pair opened the week on a negative note, declining by 0.93% to 0.6455 in Monday's session, snapping a three-day winning streak. This shift in sentiment can be attributed to the fundamental outlook deteriorating in the market due to geopolitical tension and economic uncertainties weighing on investor confidence.
US President-elect Donald Trump’s threats against countries interested in using the BRICS currency by imposing tariffs has raised fears of a trade war between the US and China and turned the market mood sour. On the data front, US ISM PMI data has also fueled the USD’s rise.
Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar weakens against USD, markets digest US data
- The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4 in November from 46.5 in October, signaling a softer contraction in the manufacturing sector.
- The Employment Index rose to 48.1 from 44.4, indicating a slight improvement in hiring activity.
- The Prices Paid Index declined to 50.3 from 54.8, reflecting a moderation in input cost pressures.
AUD/USD technical outlook: Upside remains limited below the 20-day SMA
The AUD/USD pair snapped a three-day winning streak on Thursday, getting rejected by the 20-day SMA. Although the pair has recovered some ground, as long as it doesn't conquer this level, the upside will be limited. The RSI indicator is still below the neutral 50, while the MACD is also negative, both suggesting that bearish pressure is still intact.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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