China is buying Gold again

• The Dollar and metals drifted to end the week.

• China is buying Gold again!

Good Day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! WOW! What a whirlwind weekend of events, that ended with my beloved Mizzou Tigers beating Kansas ( Our bitter rival) in basketball yesterday. We had dinner with Alex and Grace at Grace's Parents place on Thursday night... We had the rehearsal and dinner on Friday, which we hosted and was absolutely yummy! We had 90 people at the rehearsal dinner! And then Saturday, the sun came out, the weather warmed, and Alex and Grace got married... It was a beautiful ceremony, and then Saturday night, I spent the evening with my good friend, Bill Browne, of whom I hadn't seen in a while. Other friends dropped by and we ended up being almost the last to leave! Jack Jezzro & Friends play their bossa nova version of the song: Santa Claus Is Coming To Town.... 

A long intro today, but I knew some of you would want to know about how the wedding went, since Alex, who's 27 now, used to help me write the Pfennig when he was 3.... 

Ok, well, when I left you on Wednesday, the BBDXY was 1,282.90, and it ended the week at 1,280.97, So down a whopping 2 index points Thursday and Friday.... Gold was up, then down, then up and down and gyrated through the strong jobs data that printed on Friday and ended the week at $2,632.59...  Not much overall movement here, so let's move along.... Silver traded similarly to Gold and ended the week at $30.93.... 

Friday's jobs data was interesting.... The BLS said that jobs created in November by 227,0000... A much stronger number than was expected, and that got everyone scratching their heads, wondering where that leaves the questionable rate cut in the 3rd week of December....  One would think that if traders are questioning the Fed Heads' thought of, rate cut, that would be good for the dollar.... But apparently not.... So, opposites still rule in the markets... 

The price of Oil slipped below $68 to end the week at $67.50... And the 10-year's yield was 4.26% when I left you on Wednesday, and it was 4.26% to end the week... So, little to no movement in bonds, currencies, and metals while I was gone.... Now, that's strange! 

The people on my trading desk back at EverBank World Markets used to say, "When Chuck is away, the currencies & Gold will play".... 

In the overnight markets last night.... Well, all the non-movement in the dollar ended, as the overseas markets sold dollars last night... The BBDXY is down 3 index points this morning to start the week.... Gold is up $28 to start the day and week, while Silver is up 93-cents! I have something on China exciting the metals markets again, so that probably is the reason for the Gold & Silver rallies this morning... I'm also going to talk about what appears to me as the fading of the Trump Shock on the markets, so stayed tuned, same bat time, same bat channel for that! 

Someone or some entity is buying the 10-year this morning, (Can you say the Fed/ Cabal/ Cartel?, I knew you could!) as the yield on the 10-year as dropped to 4.17% to start our week. The price of Oil bumped higher to a $68 handle overnight... 

Well, it does seem to me that the Trump shock that took Gold & Silver out of their rally mode for weeks, and the dollar got stronger, is fading.... Gold has recovered ½ of its losses it suffered after the election and the dollar's movement, as seen in the BBDXY has seen its high of 1,291 slip to 1,280, as of the close on Friday.... So, to me, this appears to be a fading of the Trump Shock that took the markets by storm,,, So, do you want to know what I think this fading is setting up? That Gold & Silver get back to their rallies... And the dollar bugs realize that all the problems for the dollar that existed before the election are still there! 

Did you hear Fed/ Cabal / Cartel Chairman, Jerome Powell, was dissing Gold & Bitcoin the other day... I only concern myself with what he said about Gold, which was he asserted that gold doesn't compete with the dollar as money.... Wait What? That's only because you allow the bullion banks to smear the price of Gold every chance, they get.... It's only because Congress turned down Judy Shelton's Fed Head nomination years ago.... And it's only because Nixon saw that he needed to spend more than he had Gold in Fort Knox, and he axed the Bretton Woods Agreement, closed the Gold window, and set the dollar as a fiat currency that only has the full faith of the Government behind it.... You know, that Gov't that lies to you, takes your money not once but twice, and spends on whatchamacallits, and doodads.... And helps runs up debt that will one day be the collapse of the Great American Empire.... 

Boy, I was on a roll there, eh? But figured I had better stop before I said something that got me in trouble....

One of the things that I haven't talked about with the selling of Gold, is that China had stopped buying the physical metal back in May of this year, after the price of Gold was on a big rise.... But Gold received good news this past week, when it was announced by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) that they were buying physical Gold once again... When I read this, I thought that it was a move in the right direction for China to announce that they were buying again.... Everything has been done so secretly by China with regards to their buying Gold in the past... They understate their Gold Holdings to the World Gold Council, who tabulated each country's Gold Holdings... I used to say that China probably had 20,000 tons of physical Gold, which would put them to be the #1 country in the world, as far as Gold holdings are concerned, and 20,000 tons would far outweigh the supposed 8,000 tons that the U.S. says they have but have never been confirmed or audited.... 

The U.S. Data Cupboard late last week had the ADP Employment Report, which showed that only 144,000 jobs were created in November, which sounds more like what the number should be, not the trumped up 277,000 the BLS said were created in November!  There was also a report that printed Friday, that should scare the bejeebers out of each and everyone that is worried about the U.S. Consumer... Consumer Credit (Read Debt) soared in Rocktober to $19.8 Billion, from a September figure of $3.2 Billion.... Credit Card debt soared higher, and the savings rate of U.S. consumers fell. So, it appears to me that the rainy day money that Consumers had stashed in Mason jars, or under the mattress... has run out, and the only thing left to Consumers is their credit cards.... Now, to me, that's scarry!

The U.S. Data Cupboard this week doesn't have much for us... The STUPID CPI for last month will print... Whoopee! So, get ready for that hedonically adjusted print from the Gov't....  

To recap.... The movement in the dollar and metals late last week was muted, watered down, and boring to anyone watching them, of which I was not, as I was doing father of the groom stuff.... Which was basically nothing, but it sounded important, so I went with it! 

Here's your snippet: "The delinquency rate for commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) tied to office properties reached 10.4 percent in November 2024, approaching the 10.7 percent peak reached during the 2008 financial crisis. The ascent is the fastest two-year increase on record, with rates climbing 8.8 percentage points since late 2022, significantly outrunning the 6.3-point rise seen during the financial crisis nearly 15 years ago.

The office real estate sector has been grappling with a severe downturn for several years now, but are accelerating recently as they are driven by persistently high vacancy rates and declining rents. Property values, particularly for older office buildings, have plummeted, with many losing 50 to 70 percent of their market value and in some cases becoming effectively worthless. Those conditions have left real estate portfolio managers and building owners unable to borrow, refinance or sell properties, contributing to rising delinquencies and foreclosures.

(Mortgages become effectively delinquent when payments are missed beyond a standard 30-day grace period.)

The financial risks associated with office mortgage losses are widely dispersed among global investors, thus diminishing the potential threat to the U.S. banking system. Office mortgages are held by a vast array of investors, including CMBS and CRE-CLO investors, insurance firms, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), private equity firms, and international financial institutions. While U.S. banks have some exposure and have already recognized significant losses, no major collapses have occurred. Smaller banks with geographically and/or commercially concentrated mortgage portfolios remain at heightened risk, and escalating stress could precipitate systemic consequences.

The commercial real estate market’s troubles are not a temporary phenomenon, but a structural crisis rooted in monetary policy-induced overbuilding, regulatory barriers, and a permanent shift in work patterns vastly accelerated by pandemic lockdowns. Vulture investors have emerged, but sparingly. The sector faces profound challenges which will unfold both against and in response to the forward trajectory of monetary policy, the consequent shape of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, and broad macroeconomic developments. Hopefully the stage is not being set for the next in an increasingly annualized procession of crises."

Chuck again... This report was taken from a report by the American Institute for Economic Research... So, it's real and not fake news.... I'm just saying...

Market Prices 12/9/2024: American Style: A$.6461, kiwi .5872, C$ .7090, euro 1.0576, sterling 1.2781, Swiss 1.1381, Europea Style: rand 17.8008, krone 11.0954, SEK 10.8970, forint 388.73, zloty 4.0243, koruna 23.7178, RUB 100.43, yen 150.81, sing 1.3388, HKD 7.7746, INR 84.73, China 7.2628, peso 20.12, BRL 6.0580, BBDXY 1,277.35, Dollar Index 105.92, Oil $68.11, 10-year 4.17%, Silver $31.90, Platinum $952.00, Palladium $993.00, Copper $4.27, and Gold $2,661.40.

That's it for today.... I tried to doze off on the plane ride home last night, but I find it impossible to sleep on planes.... UGH! I'm scared to step on the scale this morning, I ate and drank a lot this past weekend! It was great to see most of my friends and all the happy smiling faces on people at the wedding and reception! That was exciting watching Mizzou beat Kansas yesterday! Now if they can carry that momentum further into the season! Our Billikens won too yesterday, so it was a good day! We were greeted home with rain and chilly weather.... I hadn't taken a coat with me to Little Rock, only to find that it was cold there too! But I has my hat, and that helps keep me warm.... I know that sounds weird but it's true.... Jack Jezzro takes us to the finish line today with his bossa nova style version of the song: I Saw Mommy Kissing Sant Claus Last Night.... I hope you have a Marvelous Monday today and remember to Be Good To Yourself!