Strong (albeit later) start to the holiday shopping season

Danish card data suggests that spending excluding energy increased by 4.5% in November compared to the same month the year before. Adjusting for inflation, spending excluding energy increased by 3.1%. This confirms the trend from October, of a pickup in spending, after a very weak six months.

November also marks the beginning of the holiday shopping season, which is vital for large parts of retailing. Looking at Black Friday, and the week running up to it, in isolation, the performance was noticeably stronger than last year. In non-grocery retailing, spending in the week up to, and including, Black Friday, was up 9.1% from last year, nominally. Spending was especially strong in clothing, sporting goods and cosmetics, but disappointed in toy stores and electronics.

However, retailing excluding grocery stores rose only a muted 0,1 % y/y for November in total nominally. Danish price data is usually collected in the second week of the month, and therefore does not capture discounts for Black Friday.

For November as a whole, we saw declining y/y spending in almost every retail category, aside from grocery stores, cosmetic stores and furniture stores. Especially toy stores, clothing and electronics disappointed. However, with Black Friday coming in a week later than in recent years, we are likely seeing a later start to Christmas shopping than we have before. The November data does not pick up the shopping in the week immediately after Black Friday, which is usually also elevated, as it falls in December unlike last year.

Outside classic holiday shopping categories, November looked strong in grocery stores, despite rising food prices. Restaurants and other parts of the service industry have also seen some improvement during the fall.

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