US PMIs point to economic outperformance ahead
Today’s impressive PMI figures from ISM should support calls for a ‘soft landing’ and another period of economic exceptionalism in the US economy in 2025.
There remains no signs whatsoever of recession in the data and instead of slowing down, business activity actually accelerated at the end of last year, with growth looking on course to print at around 3% annualised once again in the fourth quarter.
We see another year of US economic outperformance ahead in 2025, particularly should president-elect Trump double down on his tariff proposals. The dollar has rallied on today’s news, and US Treasury yields have leapt towards 4.7% - the highest level since May.
There remains reason for caution, however, with ongoing inflation concerns and a hawkish Federal Reserve, which looks likely to cut rates at a snail’s pace, set to keep a lid on domestic activity.
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