R.I.P. Comex 1974 to 2025

In the latest episode of Live from the Vault, precious metals expert Andrew Maguire offers a comprehensive analysis of the evolving landscape, highlighting the shifting balance between physical and synthetic gold markets.

With insights from recent market trends and regulatory changes, this episode offers invaluable guidance for investors navigating these volatile times.

As we step into 2025, the gold and silver markets are poised for a transformative year.

Key market developments and the role of Basel III

The end of 2024 saw a notable shift in market dynamics, as strong physical buying from Asian markets followed the seasonal end-of-year selling. This pressure is beginning to weigh on synthetic gold sellers, especially as Basel III regulations continue to reshape the gold landscape.

These regulations, which mandate physical delivery and stable funding, are limiting the ability of market players to suppress gold prices through synthetic leverage. Central banks, excluding the Federal Reserve, are aggressively amassing physical gold, further depleting COMEX reserves and pushing prices higher.

The Fed's struggles with price suppression

Despite the Fed’s ongoing efforts to suppress gold prices via heavily leveraged synthetic positions, this strategy is becoming increasingly untenable. With physical demand intensifying—especially from China and other emerging markets—the Fed’s reliance on synthetic trades is being exposed. The Fed's attempts to dilute prices were undermined by robust physical demand, particularly from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange.

By September 2024, the Fed was forced to unwind its leveraged positions, repurchasing gold at significantly higher prices. The ongoing erosion of the COMEX system and the dominance of physical gold exchanges are making it more difficult for synthetic systems to hold sway.

China’s strategic gold acquisitions

A key player in this evolving landscape is China. The PBOC purchased over 11 tonnes of gold between late November and December 2024, defying the narrative that China had ceased buying. These acquisitions were strategically timed ahead of major geopolitical events, such as tariffs and Donald Trump's inauguration.

China’s efforts to circumvent traditional markets and acquire unreported gold are driving up physical gold prices and tightening global supply. With shadow banking reserves being converted into physical gold holdings, especially within state-owned banks and the military complex, China’s actions are reshaping global gold flows.

Gold and Silver price predictions for 2025

Looking ahead to 2025, Andrew Maguire forecasts significant price increases for both gold and silver. With the ongoing demand for physical gold, particularly from central banks, and the increasing erosion of synthetic pricing mechanisms, he predicts gold might surpass $3,000 per ounce. Silver, buoyed by industrial demand—especially in EV batteries and renewable technologies—could potentially see a breakout to $50 per ounce.

The geopolitical and economic forces driving this upward trajectory are clear: the shift from synthetic markets to physical exchanges is well underway, and the global demand for real-world assets continues to grow.

Conclusion: A transformative year ahead

The insights from Andrew Maguire highlight the significant shifts underway and provide valuable guidance for positioning in the precious metals market in 2025.

As gold and silver markets continue to evolve in 2025, the forces of physical demand and regulatory shifts are set to play a central role in driving price increases. With synthetic markets under pressure and central banks increasingly focusing on physical assets, investors will need to stay informed to navigate this rapidly changing landscape.