Morning briefing: Euro could face rejection around 1.0300-1.0350 region

The Dollar Index has been coming off since the last two sessions but while above 109.00-108.75, the view remains intact to see a rise towards 111. The Euro has risen well but could face rejection around 1.0300-1.0350 region. EURINR is trading higher but still needs to see a decisive break on either side of its range of 90-88 for further directional clarity. USDJPY continues to remain stable within its earlier range of 156-158-159, a rise past which can only bring the upper targets of 160-162 back into the picture. AUDUSD and Pound, below 0.6250 and 1.24/26 appear bearish towards 0.61-0.60, 1.20 respectively in the near term. EURJPY is headed towards the crucial resistance at 164. USDCNY can gradually head towards 7.35. USDINR, as anticipated has risen well and can soon test 86.70 on the upside. The downside could be limited to 86.40. Watch out for the US CPI data release scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields are inching closer to their key resistance. The yields have to break their resistance to go further higher from here itself. Else a corrective fall can happen first before the upmove resumes. The US CPI data release today can be key in deciding that. The German yields are getting a strong follow-through rise. That keeps the uptrend intact and there can be an extended rise from here. The 10Yr GoI has come down. But support can limit the downside and take the yield higher in the coming days.

The Dow Jones has advanced and could test the 42,600-42,700 range before potentially declining toward 41,500-41,300. The DAX has climbed above 20,200; sustained follow-through buying could push the index higher toward 20,700 or higher. The Nifty may see a corrective bounce to 23,500 before resuming its downtrend towards 22500. The Nikkei is holding above 38,000 and is making an attempt to rise toward 39,000 or higher. The Shanghai index has eased after reaching a high of 3,245 and is currently consolidating within the 3,150-3,250 range.

Crude remains biased for a rise towards 82-84 (Brent) and 80-82 (WTI) in the near term. Gold and Silver can test their respective support levels before a rise towards 2700 and 31-32 is seen. Copper can test its immediate resistance at 4.4 before a fall to 4.2-4.0 happens. Natural Gas can move further up towards 4.2-4.4.

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