Weekly technical outlook: EURUSD, USDJPY, Gold [Video]

• Gold pivots as geopolitical and trade jitters worsen. Trump’s speech in focus
• EURUSD keeps fighting for a close above 1.0500 ahead of ECB rate decision
• USDJPY declines but maintains footing at 149.00. Will the U.S. jobs data come to the pair's rescue?

Trump addresses Congress ➔ Gold

Gold started the week on a strong note, climbing higher after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky left Washington without securing a mineral agreement. This came after an intense standoff with the U.S. President Donald Trump over security guarantees. In a significant geopolitical shift, Zelensky admitted that a peace deal remains "very, very far away", with Trump halting military aid to Ukraine in the aftermath despite both sides maintaining an optimistic outlook.

Trade tensions also took a turn for the worse. The U.S. administration implemented 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian imports as the pause deadline expired, while also doubling tariffs against China to 20%. In response, both Canada and China vowed to retaliate, escalating global market uncertainty.

Later today, all eyes will be on Trump as he delivers his first joint Congressional address six weeks into his term. With polls showing waning confidence in the state of union and legislations to fund the president’s key campaign promises moving at a slow pace, investors will be looking for clarity on the economic direction.

Meanwhile, gold is aiming for a decisive close above its 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 2,900/ounce, with the potential to push towards a fresh all-time high near 2,970 if positive momentum holds.

ECB rate decision ➔ EUR/USD

The euro found support on Monday after stronger-than-expected CPI inflation data boosted sentiment. Additionally, reports that European leaders have agreed to structure a peace deal to end the war in Ukraine, reflecting their support to the Ukrainian president, added to the euro’s appeal.

Looking ahead, the European Central Bank is concluding its two-day policy meeting on Thursday.  Markets are overwhelmingly expecting a sixth consecutive 25bps rate cut, bringing the benchmark to 2.5%, with another reduction likely in April. However, persistent inflation and renewed U.S. tariff threats against the EU could complicate the ECB’s path. Investors will be closely watching for any hawkish rhetoric that could challenge expectations of further easing—or even an unexpected decision to hold rates steady in a data-dependent move.

Technically, EURUSD needs to break decisively above 1.0530, and more crucially beyond 1.0572, to advance towards the 1.0665-1.0700 zone. The 200-day SMA at 1.0725 could be another key resistance to watch.

U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls ➔ USD/JPY

Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report is set to be the week's major event, but traders will also keep a close eye on Wednesday’s ISM non-manufacturing PMI after a disappointing manufacturing survey on Monday. With global geopolitical and trade tensions rising, and futures markets becoming more dovish than the Fed, currently pricing in three rate cuts by year-end, traders will be searching for clues about the labor market’s resilience.

Analysts expect February’s payrolls to show an increase of 160,000 jobs, up from 143,000 in January, while the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings are projected to hold steady at 4.0% and 4.1%, respectively.

Signs that employment in the private sector was strong enough to offset DOGE’s federal layoffs could be a key bullish catalyst for the battered USDJPY, particularly if the pair retains its foothold on the 149.00 floor in the coming sessions. If not, the pair could seek support within the 147.00-147.50 region, a break of which could confirm more downside ahead.