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尽管近几天全球市场剧烈震荡,但发生全球经济衰退的可能性依然很低;至少在美国和欧洲发达市场的经济增长基本上较为稳健,对中国和新兴市场的疲软不会十分敏感,且会从油价的进一步下跌中获得提振;此外市场很可能过度解读油价和大宗商品价格大跌对于经济增长的负面影响。

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