Economic Perspectives分析师Tom Traill日前撰文称,在美元强势的情况下,WTI原油价格仍然上涨了40%,这种情况很少见。关于对油价上涨作出贡献的因素,市场上仍存在分歧。其中包括:需求因素、供给因素,以及其他的比如净投机仓位等因素。
Traill表示,对于主张通缩的人来说,需求破坏的情况并未实质发生。从需求情况看,全球工业产出量和运输量出现上涨,但是反映原油消费量的综合数据存在严重滞后。比较有争议的是,原油价格在2019年的上涨可能更多来源于供给方面的因素。
那么接下来,WTI原油是会跌回50美元/桶,还是会涨至2011-2014年时期的100美元/桶呢?Traill认为,虽然原油供给因素的影响需要时间验证,但在需求相对供给明显减缓之前,原油仍有上涨的机会。
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