#XAU/USD# 黄金今天早上强势上破1600触及到1611,在大趋势中已经处于牛市格局,关键这轮上升趋势能否延续取决于美国、伊朗事件的下一步发展。如果有新的军事行动,黄金下一个关口将是1625附近,如果双方停止战争,回到谈判桌上,本轮事件推动起来的黄金拉升将会面临回落,因为月线上黄金拉升触及到1920-1046下跌段落回调的61.8%,在没有大战引起的避险情绪,黄金拉升将需要新的理由,而这个理由在等美股进入熊市,全球下一轮金融危机。
放宽视野,让后再回归到黄金当下的操作思路,市场的避险情绪还在,今天黄金冲高回落,对周一的高点局域构成了回踩,目前下方支撑在1580-1585局域,其次是1572附近。晚间有小非农数据,数据利多,黄金会继续拉升,上方看1595-1600价位阻力,如果数据利空,短期市场有一定的价格表现,但是主体还是当下的避险情绪。所以操作上还是以低多为主,上方关注1595价位的阻力。
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