美国通胀一旦探头将倒逼美联储加息,反而可能利空金价前景;
① 花旗集团分析师指出,近期黄金价格持续走强,主要是受到在美联储持续宽松力度预计下美元指数承压的推动,市场利率低企也令不产生利息的黄金资产更被市场看好。但该机构指出,一旦通胀率上升,金价涨势反而可能面临衰竭风险;
② 该机构指出,通常情况下,通胀预期对于具有保值功能的黄金将是利多,但是一旦通胀现实真正落地之后,相应经济底的央行反而会被迫进入加息周期,市场利率随之回升,反而对金价构成利空。
③ 眼下,美联储暂无任何紧缩意向,因此金价仍可乘着东风扶摇直上,但要随时警惕过量现金涌入实体经济诱发通胀戏剧性升温的前景,届时,黄金可能就会在加息预期下遭到抛售,更多资金将重返债券市场。
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