黄金上涨乏力,恐将迎来一波深度回调
基本面上,虽说全球疫情再度爆发,但是疫苗接种也在如火如荼的进行之中,上个月非农数据相对比较糟糕,这次投行给的预期值相对低一些,且马上北美已经进入夏季了,经济也开始活跃起来,因此利空的概率相对比较大,而且美联储部分官员表示对经济前景表示乐观,对再度宽松的预期有所降温。
技术面:现货黄金周线四连阳,从1678双针探底以来,震荡上行,连续突破1760和1818等多个强压力区间,目前上涨的节奏有所放缓,并出现高位震荡,短期关注1880的强支撑区域,一旦有效跌破,则这一轮反弹宣告结束。H4图,黄金有走三重顶的意思,且MACD出现顶背离结构KDJ死叉,MA均线死叉,短期走势有急涨急跌变成急跌缓涨,因此后市进一步回落的概率再进一步增加。
日线图,黄金暂时跌破MA5和10,中长期均线远离,有回踩均线的需求,KDJ死叉。MACD多头动能柱衰竭。加之美元指数,日线和周线级别强支撑,且短期下跌速度有所放缓,有望构筑多重底,在没有更大的利空消息下,跌破的可能性相对比较小,即使跌破,也有可能是假跌破诱空。
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