【上半年是美联储紧缩主要发力期，3月加息25基点或更合适】平安证券报告指出，美国通胀的主要矛盾正在由“供给因素”向“需求因素”转变，这意味着美联储通过紧缩来遏制通胀的可行性和必要性正在上升。由于2021年美国通胀指标屡超预期，当前美国通胀预期“失控”的风险在上升，美联储紧缩的紧迫性也相继上升。我们判断2022年美国通胀增长“前快后慢”，全年通胀走势“前高后低”，继而上半年是美联储紧缩的主要发力期。我们认为美联储3月加息25bp可能更合适，但仍预计美联储上半年或累计加息100bp。
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