FPG: PPI hit the largest increase in 3 months, and the gold trend fluctuated greatly. Latest market news: 1. [The Federal Reserve will add 50 basis points at a time next time] Federal Reserve Brad publicly said that it does not rule out the possibility of supporting a 50 basis points increase in March, and tends to reach a policy interest rate peak of 5.375% as soon as possible; the reason is doubtful whether the labor market will be as some people expected. Cool down like that. Comment: Since the US dollar has not risen excessively, there are three possibilities that are currently in front of the market, and the market is also awaiting further confirmation. 2. [US PPI rose 6% year-on-year in January, higher than 5.4% of market expectations] PPI rose by 0.7% month-on-month, the largest increase since June last year and higher than 0.4% higher than market expectations. PPI data show that inflation in the United States is still high, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates further in the coming months. Comments: Under a series of data exceeding expectations, the Federal Reserve’s early turnover expectations have been revised again. At present, gold bulls should be very nervous. 3. [OPEC + Capacity Agreement will remain unchanged throughout the year] Saudi Energy Minister told Energy Aspects Ltd. in an interview in Riyadh. AmritaSen, the research director, said, “The agreement we reached last October will continue to take effect for the rest of the year.” You need to ensure that these positive signals in the market can be maintained. Comments: If OPEC + maintains production unchanged, coupled with Asia’s recovery from the coronavirus lockdown, it will lead to a very strong potential bull power of crude oil. 4. [Reorganization of the U.S. White House Economic Advisory Team] Recently, U.S. President Biden adjusted the core members of the two major White House economic advisory teams. At present, the U.S. economy is facing great downward pressure, the adjustment of core personnel of the economic team is fascinating. Comment: In the face of increasing downward economic pressure, the Biden administration’s employment adjustment is moderate figures. The primary purpose is to lower inflation while avoid a recession. At the same time, this may be conducive to winning voter support for next year’s presidential election. 5. [Progress of the situation in Russia and Ukraine] The defense ministers of NATO member countries met in Belgium from the 14th to 15th to discuss military assistance to Ukraine and other issues. In addition, the EU plans to set up a special team on the 15th to study how to use frozen Russian funds for the reconstruction of Ukraine. Comments: The situation in Russia and Ukraine is getting worse and worse. 6. [Heizhou considers suing train operators for toxic gas leaks] On February 3, a train carrying hazardous chemicals derailed and caught fire in Ohio, United States, causing the leakage of a variety of toxic chemicals. According to the Associated Press, Ohio Attorney General Dave Jost said on the 15th that his office is considering legal action against train operators. Comment: It is estimated that the investigation process will take several months. 7. [IEA expects global oil demand to hit an all-time high this year] The International Energy Agency has significantly raised its forecast for the growth of global oil demand this year, mainly due to the fact that the reopening of the economy is expected to promote the recovery of oil demand after China lifted restrictions related to the COVID-19 epidemic. At the same time, the better-than-expected economic situation of major economies in Europe and the United States has also boosted demand. Comments: For crude oil, it is a potential profit impact. Nanshi, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: The producer price index (PPI) data released by the United States on Thursday was stronger than expected, and gold fell under short-term pressure, but then rebounded strongly from the low level. The current medium- and long-term trend of gold is still neutral. On the one hand, bulls are insisting, and on the other hand, the strong data is more worrying that raising interest rates. 50 basis points will become the scope of discussion of the Federal Reserve in the future, so this is not a positive environment for gold, which will increase the holding of zero-income gold assets. Opportunity cost. It’s just that there are no shorts and action at present, which seems to be waiting for a clearer signal. Dawson, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: The higher-than-expected annual CPI rate in the United States in January will strengthen the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates further and support the continued interest rate hike position advocated by Federal Reserve officials. We still expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in March and May, bringing the terminal interest rate ceiling to 5.25%, and then maintaining the high interest rate unchanged for the next time of 2023. Nevertheless, the Federal Reserve will still rely on data in the future. If the subsequent inflation data are still strong, the Federal Reserve may even continue to raise interest rates after the May meeting. Dave, a special analyst at FPG, believes that: U.S. retail sales data paved the way for the Federal Reserve to further tighten its policies, and then the U.S. dollar rebounded and oil prices were under pressure. Oil prices continued to fall after U.S. crude oil stocks soared to their highest level since June 2021. At present, U.S. crude oil inventory has increased by 16.3 million barrels per day, far higher than the market’s generally expected 1.38 million barrels. Production in the United States is stable, while the hidden demand for raw oil and refined oil is completely weak. However, it may be difficult for WTI crude oil to fall sharply, because there is still too much support in the economy, and manufacturing may be close to bottoming out. Energy traders may continue to buy at low prices, and the $70-80 middle area may still provide major support. The above analysis is only for the views of market researchers and is for reference only and is not Regarded as a specific investment suggestion. #Forex #trading #tradingforex