#硅谷银行破产后续影响几何?# #亨达集团#
硅谷银行破产的前因:加息引起的投资亏损
硅谷银行的破产风险可以从2022年初,或者说可以从美联储开始大幅加息说起。为了抑制通胀,美联储自2022年3月起开始了连续的激进加息,截至目前连续8次加息、累计加息450BP,在市场预期中,美联储加息的终点最高上升至5.6%,且年内出现降息的概率较低。
加息带来了三种影响,其一是银行需要支付的利息增加,无利息存款减少,银行获取资金所需要的成本提升;其二是由于利率的提升,美国PE/VC项目的融资变难,初创企业开始消耗存款,导致银行储蓄的现金开始流失;其三则是由于银行加息,MBS等资产的价格开始大幅下降,且在加息预期放缓前,这一下行趋势还将继续。
这些影响叠加到硅谷银行身上尤为严重。截至2022年末,硅谷银行持有的资产出现了大幅度的账面浮亏,其持有的到期金融资产(HTM)总规模达到913亿美元,未实现亏损则高达152亿美元。
同时,存款的消耗使得硅谷银行可支配的资金出现流失,四季度公司存款余额同比下降8.5%,活期存款下降35.8%。截至2023年一季度,公司现金资产仅剩138亿美元,资产流动性风险开始暴露。
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