隔夜金价大跌失守2000整数关口,一方面是美国经济数据和美联储官员的鹰派言论推动了对降息可能推迟的押注,美元和美债收益率上涨,另一方面则是因为市场对美国债务违约的担忧情绪降温,黄金的避险需求减弱。
美国数据相对乐观,美联储官员讲话相对鹰派,令美联储年内降息预期有所降温,美元和美债收益率走强,对金价打压明显,对美国债务违约和经济衰退的担忧也有所降温,进一步削弱黄金的避险买需,金价失守2000关口后,短线看空信号也有所增强劲,预计金价料将进一步下探1968-1975区域。
技术层面上,4小时图形态台阶式弱势下跌,此前在2000横向整理时间略长。昨日破位后,顶底转换成阻力,今日2000附近将构成首个重阻力。回穿该水平之上,则黄金看多头势头不至于彻底被打散。相反若日线图上的强支撑区域1975-1968区域水平彻底跌穿,则小心黄金进入一段不断修正下行的行情之中,下方将考验1950支撑水平。
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