隔夜出炉的美国初请失业金人数连续两周下降,市场预计美联储可能会更长时间维持高利率水平,鲍威尔晚间的讲话偏向鹰派的可能性略高,帮助美元指数继续冲高,刷新近两个半月高点,令黄金多头受阻。金价短线重回跌势的可能性有所增加,因为周四金价整合受阻于前期跌势的61.8%回撤位和中轨附近双重阻力,起码需要提防金价再度试探MA5日均线也是78.6%回档位1908附近和1900关口支撑的可能性,上方分别留意61.8%回撤位1924和50%回撤位1936附近阻力。
金价走势变数较大,一方面美联储官员认为不需要进一步加息,给金价提供支撑,另一方面,美国就业数据依然强劲,意味着美联储需要更长时间维持高利率水平,美元持续走高,令金价承压。预计晚间美联储鲍威尔的讲话,将指引市场对美联储未来政策路径判断,进而给金价进一步走势提供方向,初步关注1908-1924区域突破情况,进一步关注1900-1936区域突破情况。
温馨提示:美联储于8月24-26日在怀俄明州杰克森霍尔举行年度研讨会,投资者将等待美联储鲍威尔在北京时间周五22:05发言,以确认利率是否会在更长时间内保持在高位。
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