昨天美股、美债独立日休市，欧股普涨，一个是英国大选工党有望压倒性的优势赢得大选，一个是法国民调显示极右翼政党大选中不会赢得多数席位，法国政治担忧缓解，欧洲主权债收益率有所上行，商品开始转弱，市场在美国可能降息的乐观情绪以及对高库存和中国需求低迷的担忧中不断权衡。
数据面昨天没有什么新增项，ECB Minutes显示ECB对政策抑制经济增长的担忧有所缓和，普遍看好通胀前景，预计年内共降息三次，较此前的预期有所下修。并且上调了今明两年的通胀预期。
此外市场对于大选的定价权重正在逐步上升，最近对于Biden退选的呼声很高，Trump扬言已将拜登赶出总统竞选，招致拜登团队尖锐回击。一位消息人士对路透表示，众议院的数十位民主党人正在密切关注拜登的表现，如果他在接受ABC采访时表现不佳，他们准备要求拜登退出竞选。如果Biden退选，将会由Harris接替，不过这个概率目前看还是不大的。
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